Carlos Correa's total bases props show a pronounced under bias with just 25 overs in 66 games (37.9% rate). His 1.98 average sits 0.14 bases below the typical 2.12 line, creating consistent value on unders with an 18.6% ROI.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of a player whose production consistently falls short of market expectations. Correa's 1.98 total bases average represents a meaningful gap below his standard line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his current output level. This isn't a small sample anomaly—66 games spanning over a year demonstrates genuine pattern persistence. The 37.9% over rate indicates systematic underperformance rather than random variance, likely driven by Correa's evolution into a more patient, contact-oriented hitter who prioritizes getting on base over extra-base power. His approach has shifted toward working counts and taking walks, naturally limiting total base accumulation. The streak data shows volatility exists—he can string together multiple overs—but the underlying trend toward singles and walks creates a structural advantage for under bettors. The lack of significant hot streaks (longest over streak just 3 games) combined with his ability to go cold for extended periods (5-game under streak) reinforces the sustainability of this edge. Market inefficiency appears rooted in reputation lag, where books price Correa based on past performance rather than current statistical reality.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 18.6% under ROI combined with consistent underperformance creates a sustainable edge, though Correa's talent level prevents this from being a slam-dunk play. Target this prop when lines sit at 2.0 or higher, as his 1.98 average provides the clearest value. Main risk is positive regression to his career norms, but his current approach suggests this trend has staying power.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Carlos Correa's Total Bases prop record all games?
Carlos Correa has gone over his total bases prop in just 25 of 66 games (37.9% rate) with a 25-41 record. His under bets have generated an 18.6% ROI while overs show a -27.7% loss rate.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Carlos Correa Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Carlos Correa's total bases props. His 1.98 average sits well below typical 2.12 lines, creating consistent value. The 18.6% under ROI over 66 games demonstrates a sustainable edge worth targeting.
What's Carlos Correa's average Total Bases all games?
Carlos Correa averages 1.98 total bases per game, which is 0.14 bases below his typical 2.12 line. This negative differential of -0.1 creates consistent value for under bettors across his sample of games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Carlos Correa total bases unders when lines are set at 2.0 or higher, maximizing the gap versus his 1.98 average. Avoid betting after his rare hot streaks, as regression typically follows quickly.