Cal Raleigh's total bases prop at home presents one of the strongest under trends in baseball, hitting over just 8 times in 44 games (18.2% rate). Averaging 0.95 total bases against a 2.07 line creates a massive -1.1 differential that has generated 56.2% ROI backing unders.
Expert Analysis
Cal Raleigh's home total bases struggles stem from T-Mobile Park's pitcher-friendly dimensions and his altered approach in familiar surroundings. The 0.95 average against a 2.07 line reveals books haven't adjusted to his home/road split severity. This isn't a small sample quirk—44 games spanning multiple seasons shows systematic underperformance. The 21-game under streak demonstrates how consistently this edge appears, while the current 2-game over streak represents typical short-term variance rather than trend reversal. Raleigh's catching duties likely contribute to fatigue in home stands, where he plays more frequently than on road trips. The -65.3% over ROI shows how dramatically overpriced these lines become. Seattle's home ballpark suppresses offensive numbers across the roster, but Raleigh's power-dependent profile suffers more than contact hitters. His swing-and-miss tendencies get amplified by T-Mobile's dimensions, creating consistent value on unders. The persistence of this trend through different seasons and opposing pitching staffs suggests structural factors rather than randomness.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Cal Raleigh's total bases unders at home offer exceptional value with a 56.2% ROI over 44 games. The 0.95 average creates consistent line value, especially when books set totals at 2.0 or higher. Target games against quality pitching where the under becomes even more likely. Main risk is a hot streak breaking the pattern, but the underlying factors favor continued underperformance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cal Raleigh's Total Bases prop record home games?
Cal Raleigh has gone over his total bases prop just 8 times in 44 home games (18.2% rate) with a record of 8-36-0. This represents one of the most lopsided under trends in baseball betting.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cal Raleigh Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Cal Raleigh's total bases at home with high confidence. The 56.2% ROI on unders over 44 games, combined with his 0.95 average against typical 2.07 lines, creates consistent value.
What's Cal Raleigh's average Total Bases home games?
Cal Raleigh averages 0.95 total bases in home games compared to the typical 2.07 line, creating a massive -1.1 differential. This gap represents the core value in backing unders consistently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cal Raleigh total bases unders at home when lines are set at 2.0 or higher, especially against quality pitching staffs. Avoid during potential hot streaks, but the trend has shown remarkable consistency.