Cal Raleigh's home run production has cratered in his final 10 games, hitting just 2 home runs while going 2-8-0 against the over at a brutal 20% rate. The under has delivered a robust 52.7% ROI while his 0.2 average sits 0.3 below typical lines, creating a compelling fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Cal Raleigh's September collapse represents a dramatic departure from his season-long power production, with the veteran catcher managing just 0.2 home runs per game over his final 10 contests. This precipitous drop coincides with the typical late-season fatigue that plagues catchers more than any other position, as the physical toll of squatting behind the plate for 140+ games finally manifests in diminished bat speed and power output. The 8-game stretch without a homer within this sample suggests this wasn't merely bad luck but a fundamental shift in his swing mechanics or approach. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency of the fade - Raleigh failed to reach even modest home run lines in 80% of these games, indicating books were slow to adjust to his declining power. The streak pattern reveals telling volatility, with his longest over streak capped at just 2 games while enduring an 8-game under run. For a player who typically carries 0.5+ home run lines, averaging 0.2 represents a massive 60% shortfall that created sustainable betting value. The lack of available splits data actually strengthens the case, as it suggests no obvious platoon or situational advantages that might mask the underlying decline.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Raleigh's late-season power fade reflects the classic catcher fatigue pattern that rarely reverses once established. The 0.3 differential between his average and typical lines creates legitimate value on unders, particularly when books haven't fully adjusted. Primary risk involves small sample variance and potential dead-cat bounces, but the 80% under rate suggests sustainable edge through season's end.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cal Raleigh's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Cal Raleigh went 2-8-0 over/under on home run props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 20% of the time. He managed only 2 total home runs across this stretch, well below his season averages.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cal Raleigh Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the under on Cal Raleigh's home run props. His 0.2 average over the last 10 games sits 0.3 below typical lines, and the under delivered 52.7% ROI with an 80% hit rate during this stretch.
What's Cal Raleigh's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Cal Raleigh averaged 0.2 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, sitting 0.3 below his typical 0.5 prop line. This represents a significant 60% decline from his expected power production levels.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cal Raleigh home run unders during late-season stretches when catcher fatigue peaks. His September power fade created consistent value, particularly when books were slow to adjust lines downward after poor performances.