Cal Raleigh's home run production craters on the road, hitting just 0.34 per game versus a typical 0.55 line. His 12-29 over/under record (29.3% overs) with a devastating -44.1% ROI on overs creates a clear structural edge. The under represents premium value in away matchups.
Expert Analysis
Cal Raleigh transforms from a reliable power threat at T-Mobile Park into a significantly diminished offensive force on the road. The numbers paint a stark picture: averaging 0.34 home runs per away game against lines typically set around 0.55 represents a massive 38% gap that the market consistently fails to account for. This isn't a small sample fluke—41 games provides robust data showing persistent road struggles. The 10-game under streak within this sample demonstrates how dramatically Raleigh's power output drops in unfamiliar environments. Road factors likely impacting his performance include different backdrop conditions affecting his timing, varying mound heights and pitcher approaches he faces less frequently, and the psychological pressure of hostile crowds. The -0.2 differential between his actual production and the betting line suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to this split, creating systematic value. Most concerning for over bettors is that even during his longest hot streak, Raleigh managed just two consecutive overs before reverting to form. The consistency of this underperformance across different road venues and pitching staffs indicates a legitimate skill-based limitation rather than random variance that's due for regression.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.21 home run per game gap between Raleigh's road production and typical lines creates consistent value, supported by a 35% ROI on unders. Target away games against quality pitching staffs in pitcher-friendly parks for maximum edge. Primary risk is a breakout performance that could signal legitimate improvement, but the sample size and consistency of struggles suggest this remains a profitable long-term approach.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Home Runs Prop Lines
Compare Cal Raleigh props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cal Raleigh's Home Runs prop record away games?
Cal Raleigh's home run prop record in away games stands at 12-29 (29.3% overs) across 41 games from May 2023 to September 2024, showing consistent underperformance versus betting lines with only 12 games exceeding expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cal Raleigh Home Runs away games?
Bet under on Cal Raleigh's home runs in away games. His 0.34 road average versus typical 0.55 lines creates systematic value, evidenced by 35% ROI on unders and just 29.3% over rate across a substantial sample.
What's Cal Raleigh's average Home Runs away games?
Cal Raleigh averages 0.34 home runs per away game, significantly below the typical 0.55 betting line. This -0.21 differential represents a 38% gap that consistently creates value for under bettors in road matchups.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cal Raleigh home run unders in away games against quality pitching staffs and pitcher-friendly ballparks. His road power struggles are most pronounced in challenging environments, maximizing the edge from his consistent underperformance versus betting lines.