Cal Raleigh's home run props present one of baseball's strongest under trends, hitting over just 16 of 85 times (18.8%) with a massive -0.33 differential between his 0.21 average and typical 0.54 line. The under delivers exceptional +55.0% ROI compared to devastating -64.1% on overs.
Expert Analysis
Cal Raleigh's home run production represents a textbook case of market overvaluation meeting reality. His 0.21 home runs per game average sits dramatically below the standard 0.54 line, creating a 0.33 differential that's among the largest in baseball. This isn't a short-term cold streak — the 85-game sample spanning nearly two full seasons demonstrates consistent power limitations that oddsmakers haven't properly adjusted for. The 18.8% over rate indicates Raleigh clears his home run line roughly once every five games, making this one of the most reliable under plays in baseball. His recent 2-game over streak pales against a 14-game under streak that better represents his true power ceiling. The massive ROI split (+55.0% under vs -64.1% over) reflects how consistently the market misprices his power potential. As a catcher, Raleigh's offensive profile prioritizes contact and situational hitting over raw power, yet books continue setting lines that suggest regular home run production. The persistence of this trend across multiple seasons suggests structural factors rather than temporary slumps, making regression toward the over unlikely without significant changes to his approach or ballpark factors.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Cal Raleigh's home run props offer exceptional value with an 81.2% under hit rate and +55.0% ROI over 85 games. The 0.33 average-to-line differential is unsustainable for overs, while his catcher profile and consistent power limitations make this trend highly reliable. Bet the under in any standard market conditions, with particular emphasis when lines approach 0.5 or higher.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cal Raleigh's Home Runs prop record all games?
Cal Raleigh has gone over his home runs prop just 16 times in 85 games (18.8%) while going under 69 times. His average of 0.21 home runs per game sits well below the typical 0.54 line, creating a -0.33 differential that strongly favors unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cal Raleigh Home Runs all games?
Bet the under on Cal Raleigh's home runs props with high confidence. The 81.2% under hit rate and +55.0% ROI over 85 games make this one of baseball's most reliable under trends, supported by his consistent power limitations as a contact-oriented catcher.
What's Cal Raleigh's average Home Runs all games?
Cal Raleigh averages 0.21 home runs per game compared to the typical 0.54 line, creating a massive -0.33 differential. This means he falls short of his prop line by roughly one-third of a home run per game, indicating significant market overvaluation.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Cal Raleigh's home runs under in standard market conditions, especially when lines reach 0.5 or higher. His consistent power limitations make this trend reliable regardless of opponent, with the 85-game sample showing sustained underperformance across various matchups and situations.