Cal Raleigh's home hitting props present a compelling under opportunity, with the catcher going over his hits line just 26.7% of the time (12-33-0) across 45 home games. Averaging 0.53 hits against a 1.03 line creates a massive -0.5 differential that screams systematic overvaluation by oddsmakers.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a stark story about Cal Raleigh's home hitting struggles that the betting market refuses to acknowledge. His 0.53 hits per game average at T-Mobile Park sits a full half-hit below the typical 1.03 line, creating one of the most exploitable prop edges in baseball. This isn't random variance—it's systematic underperformance with a clear pattern. The 40% ROI on unders demonstrates consistent market mispricing, while the brutal -49.1% over ROI shows how punishing backing Raleigh's home hitting has been. His longest under streak of 11 games reveals just how prolonged these cold spells can become, suggesting the market consistently overestimates his home offensive output. T-Mobile Park's pitcher-friendly dimensions and marine layer likely contribute to this home/road split, creating conditions that suppress offensive numbers. The sample size of 45 games provides statistical significance, and the consistency of the underperformance suggests this isn't a trend likely to reverse dramatically. Raleigh's catching duties may also factor into home fatigue, as the physical demands of backstopping could impact his offensive approach more noticeably in familiar surroundings where he's catching more frequently.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -0.5 differential and 73.3% under rate create clear value, but regression risk exists given the extreme nature of these numbers. Target games where Raleigh faces quality pitching or when the line sits at 1.0 or higher. The main risk is a hot streak that could quickly eat into profits, but the underlying factors suggest continued home struggles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Hits Prop Lines
Compare Cal Raleigh props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cal Raleigh's Hits prop record home games?
Cal Raleigh has gone 12-33-0 over/under on his hits props in home games, hitting the over just 26.7% of the time. This represents one of the most lopsided prop records in baseball, with unders cashing nearly three times more often than overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cal Raleigh Hits home games?
Bet under on Cal Raleigh's hits props at home games. The 73.3% under rate and 40% ROI provide clear value, especially when the line is set at 1.0 or higher. His home struggles are consistent and exploitable.
What's Cal Raleigh's average Hits home games?
Cal Raleigh averages 0.53 hits per home game compared to the typical 1.03 line, creating a massive -0.5 differential. This gap represents one of the largest systematic prop edges available, showing consistent market overvaluation of his home hitting.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cal Raleigh under props when facing quality starting pitching or when the line is set at 1.0 or above. His home struggles are most pronounced in these spots, and the higher lines provide additional value cushion.