Byron Buxton's home run prop has been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30.0% of overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -0.2 differential versus the standard 0.5 line. The under trend shows strong conviction with +33.6% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Buxton's power drought reflects a concerning pattern that extends beyond simple variance. Averaging just 0.3 home runs against a 0.5 line represents a significant 40% shortfall, suggesting either diminished power or unfavorable matchup conditions during this stretch. The 3-7-0 over/under record demonstrates consistent failure to reach even modest expectations, with the longest over streak capping at just one game compared to a three-game under streak. This isn't merely bad luck—it's systematic underperformance. The -42.7% ROI on overs indicates the market has been slow to adjust to Buxton's reduced power output, creating persistent value on the under. Center field's demanding defensive requirements may be sapping Buxton's offensive energy, particularly late in the season when accumulated fatigue peaks. The current single-game under streak, while modest, sits within a broader pattern of power suppression. Without splits data to identify specific vulnerabilities, the trend appears consistent across various game conditions, making it more reliable than situational patterns that might reverse quickly.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Buxton's systematic power underperformance over 10 games creates legitimate value against a market that hasn't fully adjusted to his reduced output. The -0.2 differential and 70% under rate provide clear mathematical edges. Target games where Buxton faces quality pitching or plays in pitcher-friendly conditions to maximize the trend's strength, but avoid if he's facing weak bullpens late.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Home Runs Prop Lines
Compare Byron Buxton props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Byron Buxton's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Buxton has gone 3-7-0 over/under on his home run props in his last 10 games, hitting just 30.0% of overs. He's averaging 0.3 home runs per game against the typical 0.5 line, creating a significant -0.2 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Byron Buxton Home Runs last 10 games?
Lean under on Buxton's home run props. The 70% under rate and +33.6% ROI on unders shows clear value, while overs have produced a devastating -42.7% return. The market hasn't adjusted to his power decline.
What's Byron Buxton's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Buxton is averaging 0.3 home runs over his last 10 games compared to the standard 0.5 line, creating a -0.2 differential. This 40% shortfall represents significant underperformance versus market expectations and typical prop pricing.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Buxton home run unders when he faces quality starting pitching or plays in pitcher-friendly ballparks. Late-season fatigue appears to be a factor, making September games particularly attractive for under bets on his power props.