Byron Buxton's home run production at Target Field has been remarkably poor, hitting just 8 overs in 35 home games (22.9% rate) while averaging 0.29 home runs against a typical 0.5 line. The under has delivered exceptional value with +47.3% ROI. This represents a strong LEAN UNDER opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Byron Buxton's home run struggles at Target Field reveal a compelling market inefficiency that extends beyond typical home/road splits. His 0.29 home run average against the standard 0.5 line creates a meaningful -0.2 differential that suggests consistent overvaluation by oddsmakers. The 22.9% over rate across 35 games isn't just poor—it's systematically exploitable, particularly given Target Field's pitcher-friendly dimensions and Buxton's specific swing mechanics that favor gap power over pure home run production at home. The +47.3% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern rooted in ballpark factors and Buxton's approach. His current streak of 1 under follows a season-long trend where he's managed consecutive overs only twice, with his longest under streak reaching 6 games. The key concern for under bettors is Buxton's elite raw power—when he connects, balls travel regardless of venue. However, his home park seems to suppress the launch angle and exit velocity combinations that produce home runs, making this a high-conviction fade spot when the line sits at 0.5 or higher.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Buxton's 22.9% over rate at home creates clear value on the under, especially at the standard 0.5 line where he's averaging 0.29 home runs. Target Field's dimensions and his specific home struggles make this a consistent fade spot. The primary risk is his elite power potentially breaking through, but the 35-game sample provides strong evidence this is a sustainable edge worth exploiting.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Home Runs Prop Lines
Compare Byron Buxton props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Byron Buxton's Home Runs prop record home games?
Buxton has gone 8-27-0 on home run overs in home games, hitting just 22.9% of his overs. He's averaging 0.29 home runs per home game against lines typically set at 0.5, creating a significant negative differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Byron Buxton Home Runs home games?
Bet the under on Buxton's home run props at Target Field. His 22.9% over rate and +47.3% ROI on unders over 35 games creates clear value, especially when the line is set at 0.5 or higher.
What's Byron Buxton's average Home Runs home games?
Buxton averages 0.29 home runs per home game, which is 0.2 below the typical 0.5 line. This consistent underperformance relative to market expectations has created profitable under opportunities throughout the sample period.
How reliable is this trend?
Target the under when Buxton's home run line is 0.5 or higher at Target Field. His home ballpark consistently suppresses his power numbers, making these spots ideal for under bets with strong historical backing.