Byron Buxton's home run prop in away games presents one of the sharpest under trends in baseball, hitting just 6.9% overs across 29 games with a devastating -86.8% ROI on overs. His 0.1 average sits 0.47 runs below typical lines, creating massive value on unders with 77.7% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Byron Buxton's road power struggles represent a classic case of environmental impact on offensive production. Averaging just 0.1 home runs per away game against lines typically set around 0.5-0.6, Buxton transforms from legitimate power threat to singles hitter when leaving Target Field. The 19-game under streak within this sample isn't just variance—it reflects systematic factors like unfamiliar ballpark dimensions, different lighting conditions, and the psychological comfort of home routines that particularly affect swing-dependent power hitters. Buxton's approach relies heavily on timing and barrel accuracy, both of which suffer in foreign environments. The 6.9% over rate across 29 games provides exceptional sample size credibility, while the -0.47 differential between performance and market expectations suggests books haven't fully adjusted to this split. Most concerning for over bettors is the consistency—even Buxton's best road performances rarely feature multiple home runs, capping upside potential. The trend's persistence through different seasons and opposing pitching staffs indicates structural rather than situational factors driving the underperformance.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Buxton's road power deficiency is too pronounced and persistent to ignore, with nearly a half-run gap between performance and typical market pricing. Target unders when lines sit at 0.5 or higher, particularly in pitcher-friendly road venues. The primary risk is regression to career norms, but 29 games of consistent underperformance suggests this split has staying power through environmental and psychological factors.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Byron Buxton's Home Runs prop record away games?
Byron Buxton's home run prop record in away games is 2-27-0 over/under, hitting just 6.9% overs across 29 games from July 2023 through September 2024, making it one of the most reliable under trends in baseball.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Byron Buxton Home Runs away games?
Bet UNDER on Byron Buxton's home run props in away games with high confidence. The 77.7% ROI on unders and 0.47-run performance deficit versus typical lines creates exceptional value for under bettors.
What's Byron Buxton's average Home Runs away games?
Byron Buxton averages 0.1 home runs per away game, sitting 0.47 runs below typical prop lines around 0.5-0.6. This massive differential represents one of the largest performance gaps in player prop betting.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Byron Buxton home run unders when lines are 0.5 or higher in away games, especially in pitcher-friendly ballparks. Avoid betting after extended home stands when recency bias might inflate his perceived road power.