Byron Buxton's home run props present one of the season's most reliable under plays, hitting just 15.6% overs across 64 games with a devastating -70.2% ROI on overs. Averaging 0.2 home runs against a 0.53 line creates a massive 0.3 differential that screams systematic overvaluation by oddsmakers.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a story of chronic overestimation that borders on the absurd. Buxton's 10-54 over/under record represents more than just poor performance—it reveals a fundamental disconnect between market perception and reality. His 0.2 home run average against a consistent 0.53 line suggests oddsmakers are pricing in a player who simply doesn't exist anymore. This isn't a temporary slump; it's a 64-game sample spanning over a year that shows remarkable consistency in underperformance. The longest under streak of 18 games demonstrates how thoroughly the market has misjudged Buxton's current power output. What makes this trend particularly compelling is its persistence across different matchups and situations, suggesting the underlying factors aren't matchup-dependent but rather fundamental to Buxton's current approach or physical condition. The 61.1% ROI on unders indicates sharp money has likely caught onto this inefficiency, yet the lines haven't adjusted meaningfully. This creates a rare situation where a obvious trend continues to offer value because recreational money keeps inflating the numbers based on Buxton's reputation rather than his recent production.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 15.6% over rate combined with the massive line differential creates an edge too significant to ignore. Buxton's home run props should be attacked aggressively on the under, particularly when the line sits at 0.5 or higher. The primary risk is a sudden power surge, but 64 games of data suggests this is Buxton's new baseline rather than an extended cold streak.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Byron Buxton's Home Runs prop record all games?
Byron Buxton's home run prop record stands at 10-54-0 over/under across 64 games, hitting just 15.6% overs. This represents one of the most lopsided records in baseball props, with unders cashing at an 84.4% clip over a 15-month sample.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Byron Buxton Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Byron Buxton's home run props with high confidence. The 15.6% over rate and 61.1% under ROI make this one of the season's most reliable plays. His 0.2 average against 0.53 lines creates systematic value on every under bet.
What's Byron Buxton's average Home Runs all games?
Byron Buxton averages 0.2 home runs per game compared to his typical 0.53 prop line, creating a massive -0.3 differential. This gap represents the market's failure to adjust for his significant power decline over the past year-plus.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Byron Buxton home run unders whenever the line is 0.5 or higher, which occurs in most games. The trend shows no situational dependencies, making it reliable regardless of opponent, ballpark, or recent form patterns.