Byron Buxton's hits props have been a goldmine for under bettors, going just 2-8 over his last 10 games with a devastating -61.8% ROI on overs. His 1.1 average sits 0.7 hits below the typical 1.8 line, creating consistent value on unders with +52.7% returns.
Expert Analysis
Byron Buxton's recent hitting struggles represent a dramatic departure from his career norms, with the center fielder managing just 11 hits across 10 games while books continue setting lines around 1.8. This 20% over rate signals either a fundamental shift in approach or prolonged slump that oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for. The -0.7 differential between his actual performance and betting lines suggests books are pricing in his historical upside rather than current reality. Buxton's power-first approach often leads to feast-or-famine stretches, and this appears to be a pronounced famine period where he's trading contact for power attempts. The seven-game under streak within this sample indicates sustained struggles rather than random variance. Most concerning for over bettors is the consistency of the underperformance—Buxton isn't alternating good and bad games but showing persistent contact issues. Without additional context on injury status or mechanical adjustments, this trend appears rooted in approach rather than temporary factors. The 52.7% ROI on unders demonstrates clear market inefficiency, though regression risk increases as the sample grows and books potentially adjust lines lower.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Buxton's contact issues have created genuine value on under bets, with books slow to adjust lines downward from his historical norms. The ideal spot is when his line remains at 1.5+ hits, particularly in tough matchups against quality pitching. Main risk is immediate regression if he rediscovers his timing, but the sustained nature of this slump suggests continued under value in the near term.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Byron Buxton's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Byron Buxton has gone 2-8 on hits overs in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 20% of the time. This represents one of the worst over rates for any regular player prop, with under bettors enjoying a strong 52.7% ROI during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Byron Buxton Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on Byron Buxton hits props while his line remains inflated above 1.5. His 1.1 average is significantly below typical 1.8 lines, creating consistent value. However, monitor for any signs of mechanical adjustments that could trigger immediate regression to his career norms.
What's Byron Buxton's average Hits last 10 games?
Byron Buxton is averaging just 1.1 hits per game over his last 10 contests, a full 0.7 hits below the typical 1.8 betting line. This substantial gap between performance and market expectations has created profitable under opportunities with strong returns for disciplined bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Byron Buxton under bets when his line stays at 1.5+ hits, especially against quality pitching staffs. Avoid betting after any multi-hit games that might signal a breakout, and be cautious late in seasons when sample sizes become less predictive of future performance.