Bryson Stott's total bases prop shows a clear under bias in away games, hitting under 38.9% of the time across 18 games with a -0.2 average differential. The under bet delivers solid 16.7% ROI while overs hemorrhage value at -25.8%. Strong lean under.
Expert Analysis
Bryson Stott's road struggles with total bases stem from a combination of reduced power output and less favorable hitting environments away from Citizens Bank Park. His 1.72 average versus the typical 1.89 line reveals books haven't fully adjusted to his diminished road production. The 38.9% over rate isn't just bad luck—it reflects systematic issues with Stott's approach in unfamiliar ballparks. Road games often feature different mound heights, backgrounds, and atmospheric conditions that can disrupt timing, particularly for contact hitters like Stott who rely on precision rather than raw power. The -0.2 differential suggests he's consistently falling short of market expectations, indicating either books are slow to adjust or they're factoring in positive regression that hasn't materialized. With three consecutive unders and no recent hot streak to suggest a turnaround, the trend appears sustainable. The 16.7% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't a coin flip—there's genuine edge in fading Stott's total bases when he's playing away from Philadelphia. The lack of available split data actually strengthens the case, as it suggests books may be using incomplete information to set these lines.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Stott's road total bases consistently underwhelm with strong historical evidence supporting the under. The ideal spot is when he faces quality pitching in pitcher-friendly ballparks, amplifying his road struggles. Main risk is positive regression—a .389 over rate eventually normalizes, but the underlying performance gap suggests this edge persists longer than pure variance would indicate.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bryson Stott's Total Bases prop record away games?
Bryson Stott's total bases prop in away games shows a 7-11 over/under record (38.9% overs) across 18 games. He averages 1.72 total bases against a typical line of 1.89, creating a consistent -0.2 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bryson Stott Total Bases away games?
Bet under on Bryson Stott's total bases in away games. The 16.7% ROI on unders combined with his 1.72 average versus 1.89 lines creates consistent value. His road struggles appear systematic rather than temporary variance.
What's Bryson Stott's average Total Bases away games?
Bryson Stott averages 1.72 total bases in away games, falling 0.2 bases short of the typical 1.89 line. This consistent underperformance across 18 games suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his diminished road production capabilities.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bryson Stott total bases unders when he faces quality starting pitching in pitcher-friendly ballparks. Road games against teams with strong bullpens also amplify his struggles, as do day games where lighting conditions differ from his home environment.