Bryson Stott's total bases prop presents a clear under opportunity with just 35.5% overs across 31 games. The Phillies second baseman averages 1.52 total bases against a typical 1.95 line, creating a significant -0.4 differential. This systematic underperformance makes Stott's under a compelling long-term play.
Expert Analysis
Bryson Stott's total bases underperformance stems from his contact-oriented approach that prioritizes getting on base over driving the ball with authority. His 11-20 over/under record reflects a player whose skill set doesn't align with inflated betting lines that expect more power production. The -0.4 differential between his 1.52 average and the typical 1.95 line represents a fundamental mispricing by oddsmakers who may be overvaluing his position in Philadelphia's potent lineup. Stott's profile as a table-setter rather than a run producer creates consistent value on the under, particularly when books fail to adjust for his singles-heavy approach. The current three-game under streak aligns with his longest streak of six consecutive unders, suggesting this isn't random variance but rather his natural offensive ceiling asserting itself. The 23.2% ROI on unders demonstrates sustainable profitability, while the -32.3% ROI on overs confirms the systematic overpricing. This trend persists because casual bettors see 'Phillies hitter' and assume power, while sharp analysis reveals a player whose value comes from plate discipline and contact rather than extra-base hits.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Stott's contact-first approach creates consistent value against inflated total bases lines that expect more power than he delivers. The 23.2% under ROI and -0.4 average differential provide a mathematical edge, though his spot in Philadelphia's lineup prevents this from being a slam dunk. Target unders when the line sits at 1.5 or higher, as books struggle to properly price his singles-heavy profile.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bryson Stott's Total Bases prop record all games?
Bryson Stott's total bases prop record stands at 11-20 across 31 games, hitting the over just 35.5% of the time. This represents a clear pattern of underperformance against the betting lines set by sportsbooks.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bryson Stott Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Bryson Stott's total bases props. His 1.52 average against 1.95 lines creates a -0.4 differential, while the 23.2% under ROI demonstrates consistent profitability betting against inflated expectations.
What's Bryson Stott's average Total Bases all games?
Bryson Stott averages 1.52 total bases per game compared to typical betting lines around 1.95. This -0.4 differential represents significant value, as he consistently falls short of oddsmakers' power expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Stott's total bases unders when lines sit at 1.5 or higher, particularly in games where his contact-first approach is most valuable. Avoid when he faces weaker pitching that might inflate his extra-base opportunities.