Bryson Stott's home run prop at home presents one of the most reliable under bets in baseball, hitting just 7.7% overs with a devastating 1-12-0 record. His 0.08 home runs per game average sits 0.4 below the typical 0.5 line, creating consistent value on unders with a remarkable 76.2% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Bryson Stott's power profile fundamentally misaligns with Citizens Bank Park's dimensions and his swing mechanics. His 0.08 home run rate at home reflects a contact-first approach that prioritizes getting on base over driving the ball out of the yard. The 12-game under streak isn't fluky—it's systematic. Stott's ground ball tendencies and line drive swing path rarely produce the launch angle needed for home runs, even in a hitter-friendly park. His approach becomes more conservative at home, likely pressing less and focusing on situational hitting rather than individual power numbers. The sample size of 13 games spanning over a year demonstrates consistency across different lineup spots, opposing pitching, and game situations. What makes this trend particularly sustainable is Stott's role in Philadelphia's offense—he's valued for his defense, speed, and ability to turn the lineup over, not for power production. The Phillies have legitimate power threats like Harper, Schwarber, and Castellanos, allowing Stott to play within his natural skill set. His home run drought isn't concerning to the organization because it aligns with his expected contribution. The extreme under rate suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his true power ceiling at home.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Stott's home run prop represents elite under value with a 76.2% ROI backed by systematic offensive approach rather than random variance. The 12-game under streak reflects his true skill level, not bad luck. Target this bet when the line sits at 0.5, especially against right-handed pitching where his power numbers are historically weaker. Primary risk is a fluky wall-scraper, but his consistent ground ball profile makes even that unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-05-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bryson Stott's Home Runs prop record home games?
Bryson Stott is 1-12-0 on home run overs in home games, hitting just 7.7% of overs across 13 games from May 2023 through August 2024. He's averaging 0.08 home runs per game at home.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bryson Stott Home Runs home games?
Bet under on Stott's home run props at home with high confidence. His 76.2% under ROI and 1-12-0 record create elite value, especially at the standard 0.5 line where he consistently falls short.
What's Bryson Stott's average Home Runs home games?
Stott averages 0.08 home runs per game in home contests, sitting 0.4 below the typical 0.5 line. This massive differential of 83% below expectation drives the consistent under value in his props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Stott's home run unders when facing right-handed pitching at Citizens Bank Park with the line set at 0.5. His ground ball approach and contact-first mentality are most pronounced in these situations.