Bryson Stott's home run prop in away games presents a rare betting edge with extreme consistency. The Phillies second baseman has hit the under in 15 of 17 road contests (88.2% under rate), averaging just 0.12 homers against a typical 0.5 line. This represents a clear systematic undervaluation by oddsmakers.
Expert Analysis
Bryson Stott's road power struggles reveal a fundamental disconnect between his actual production and betting market expectations. Averaging 0.12 home runs per away game against the standard 0.5 line creates a massive -0.4 differential that screams systematic mispricing. The 88.2% under rate across 17 games isn't random variance—it reflects Stott's profile as a contact-oriented second baseman who lacks the raw power to consistently clear fences in unfamiliar ballparks. Road environments naturally suppress offensive numbers, and Stott's gap-to-gap approach becomes even more pronounced away from Philadelphia's hitter-friendly dimensions. The current eight-game under streak and longest over streak of just one game highlight how rarely Stott generates legitimate home run threats on the road. His swing path and launch angle metrics suggest a player built for doubles and singles, not tape-measure shots. While regression toward the mean is always a concern, Stott's fundamental approach and ballpark effects create structural reasons for continued under performance. The -77.5% ROI on overs versus +68.5% on unders tells the complete story—this isn't a hot streak but a sustainable edge rooted in player profile and environmental factors.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Bryson Stott's road home run under represents one of the most reliable props in baseball, with an 88.2% hit rate backed by fundamental reasons. His contact-heavy approach and road environment effects create structural advantages for under bettors. The main risk is an outlier performance or shortened game, but Stott's eight-game under streak and 0.12 average suggest continued value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bryson Stott's Home Runs prop record away games?
Bryson Stott's home run prop record in away games is 2-15-0 over/under, meaning the under has hit in 15 of 17 road contests for an 88.2% success rate with a +68.5% ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bryson Stott Home Runs away games?
Bet UNDER on Bryson Stott's home run props in away games with high confidence. The 88.2% under rate and 0.12 average against a 0.5 line create exceptional value for under bettors.
What's Bryson Stott's average Home Runs away games?
Bryson Stott averages 0.12 home runs per away game, creating a massive -0.4 differential against the standard 0.5 line. This gap represents significant systematic undervaluation by the betting market.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Bryson Stott home run unders consistently in away games, especially in pitcher-friendly ballparks or against quality starting pitching. His contact-heavy approach makes road unders highly reliable regardless of matchup specifics.