Bryson Stott's hits prop at Citizens Bank Park shows modest over bias with a 53.8% over rate across 13 games. While the 0.92 average barely exceeds typical 0.5-1.0 lines, the +2.8% ROI on overs suggests slight market inefficiency. Lean over in favorable matchups.
Expert Analysis
Bryson Stott's home hitting performance reveals a nuanced picture that requires deeper examination beyond the surface numbers. The 53.8% over rate across 13 games suggests a slight edge, but the 0.92 average hits per game tells the real story - Stott consistently performs near his expected level at Citizens Bank Park. The positive ROI on overs (+2.8%) indicates the market may be slightly undervaluing his home consistency, while the concerning -11.9% under ROI suggests books have adjusted appropriately to his baseline performance. The limited sample size of 13 games demands caution, as does the narrow 0.04 differential between his average and typical lines. Stott's profile as a contact-oriented second baseman who benefits from familiar surroundings aligns with the modest home advantage shown in the data. The current two-game over streak, while short, represents his longest active run and could indicate improved timing or favorable recent matchups. However, his previous three-game under streak demonstrates the volatility inherent in daily hitting props, even for consistent players.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Stott's 53.8% over rate and positive ROI suggest a slight market edge, particularly when facing right-handed pitching or weaker bullpens where his contact skills translate to more opportunities. The key is selectivity - target games where the line sits at 0.5 or 1.0 rather than inflated numbers. Primary risk remains the small sample size and narrow performance margin that could quickly reverse.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-05-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bryson Stott's Hits prop record home games?
Bryson Stott's hits prop record in home games shows 7 overs and 6 unders across 13 games, translating to a 53.8% over rate. He averages 0.92 hits per home game with a positive 2.8% ROI on over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bryson Stott Hits home games?
Lean over on Bryson Stott's hits props in home games, but be selective. The 53.8% over rate and positive ROI suggest slight value, particularly when the line is set at 0.5 or 1.0 hits rather than higher numbers.
What's Bryson Stott's average Hits home games?
Bryson Stott averages 0.92 hits per game at Citizens Bank Park, which typically sits just above standard 0.5-1.0 hit lines. This 0.04 differential above expected lines contributes to the modest over bias in his home performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bryson Stott hits overs in home games against right-handed pitching or when facing weaker bullpens. Avoid betting when the line exceeds 1.0 hits, as his contact-based approach provides more value at lower thresholds.