Bryson Stott's hits prop presents a marginal edge with 51.6% overs across 31 games, averaging 1.03 hits against a 0.89 line for a modest +0.14 differential. The negative ROI on both sides (-1.5% over, -7.6% under) suggests market efficiency, warranting a cautious lean over.
Expert Analysis
Bryson Stott's hits production reveals a player consistently outperforming his betting line by 0.14 hits per game, though the narrow 51.6% over rate suggests this edge is fragile. The 1.03 average against a 0.89 line indicates books may be undervaluing Stott's contact consistency, particularly given his role as Philadelphia's everyday second baseman. However, the negative ROI on both sides raises red flags about juice and market sharpness. Stott's profile as a contact-oriented middle infielder typically translates to steady hit production, but the lack of split data limits our ability to identify optimal betting spots. The recent under streak of one game following longer over streaks (up to five games) suggests natural variance rather than a meaningful shift in approach. The modest sample size of 31 games provides reasonable confidence in the trend's validity, though regression toward the mean remains a constant threat. Books appear to have adjusted somewhat to Stott's consistency, making this a low-margin proposition that requires careful game selection and line shopping.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with LOW confidence. The +0.14 differential provides a mathematical edge, but negative ROIs indicate market efficiency that erodes profit potential. Target games where Stott faces weaker pitching or in favorable hitting environments to maximize the slim advantage. The main risk is continued line adjustment as books recognize his consistency, potentially eliminating the edge entirely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bryson Stott's Hits prop record all games?
Bryson Stott has gone over his hits prop in 16 of 31 games (51.6%) while staying under 15 times. His record shows slight over tendency but negative ROI on both sides indicates market efficiency.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bryson Stott Hits all games?
Lean over on Stott's hits props due to his 1.03 average exceeding the typical 0.89 line. However, bet selectively given negative ROIs and target favorable matchups against weaker pitching for best value.
What's Bryson Stott's average Hits all games?
Stott averages 1.03 hits per game compared to the standard 0.89 betting line, creating a +0.14 differential. This modest edge suggests books may slightly undervalue his contact consistency as Philadelphia's regular second baseman.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Stott hits overs against right-handed pitching and weaker bullpens where his contact skills shine. Avoid betting during cold streaks or against elite strikeout pitchers who can neutralize his approach.