Bryce Johnson's Total Bases props present an extraordinary betting opportunity with a perfect 0-10-0 record over his last 10 games. Averaging just 0.7 total bases against a 3.1 line, Johnson has delivered a stunning -100% ROI on overs while generating +90.9% returns on unders. This represents a clear LEAN UNDER situation.
Expert Analysis
The numbers surrounding Bryce Johnson's Total Bases production tell a story of systematic underperformance that borders on the historically rare. Over his last 10 games spanning from June 26th to August 17th, Johnson has failed to reach his total bases line in every single contest, creating a 2.4-base average deficit that suggests fundamental issues with his offensive approach or role. This isn't merely a cold streak—it's a sustained pattern that indicates either injury concerns, mechanical problems, or a significant change in his usage within the Padres' lineup. The perfect 0-10 record against the total bases line is particularly noteworthy because it suggests oddsmakers have been slow to adjust, potentially overvaluing Johnson's previous performance or failing to account for his current struggles. While regression toward the mean is always a concern with extreme trends, the magnitude of Johnson's underperformance—averaging less than a quarter of his expected total bases—suggests deeper issues that may persist. The 10-game sample size, while not enormous, spans nearly two months of action, providing sufficient data to identify a meaningful pattern rather than random variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Johnson's perfect 0-10 record against his total bases line over 10 games represents a significant market inefficiency that savvy bettors should exploit. The 2.4-base average deficit indicates systematic underperformance that likely persists until his underlying issues are resolved. Target this prop when Johnson faces quality pitching or in situations where the Padres may rest key offensive pieces, as his limited production becomes even more pronounced in challenging matchups.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bryce Johnson's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Johnson has gone 0-10-0 on Total Bases props over his last 10 games, with zero overs, zero pushes, and 10 unders. This perfect under record spans from June 26th to August 17th, 2024, representing one of the most lopsided prop trends available.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bryce Johnson Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet UNDER on Johnson's Total Bases props with medium confidence. His perfect 0-10 record and 2.4-base average deficit create a clear edge. Target these props when he faces strong pitching or in games where offensive opportunities may be limited.
What's Bryce Johnson's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Johnson is averaging just 0.7 total bases over his last 10 games compared to his typical 3.1 line, creating a massive 2.4-base deficit. This 77% underperformance rate indicates he's producing less than a quarter of his expected output consistently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Johnson's Total Bases unders when he faces quality starting pitching or elite bullpens, as his already limited production becomes even more constrained. Also consider these props in day games or back-to-back situations where fatigue may further impact performance.