Bryce Johnson has gone 0-10-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, producing zero home runs against consistent 0.5 lines. The under has delivered a 90.9% ROI while overs lost 100%. This represents a clear edge toward the under.
Expert Analysis
Johnson's complete absence of home runs over this 10-game stretch reflects fundamental limitations in his power profile rather than temporary variance. As a contact-oriented center fielder, Johnson lacks the raw power metrics that typically drive consistent home run production. His zero home runs against 0.5 lines indicates sportsbooks may be overvaluing his power potential based on park factors or limited sample noise from earlier in the season. The 100% under rate across 10 games suggests this isn't random fluctuation but rather an accurate reflection of his true talent level. Johnson's approach appears focused on getting on base and using his speed, not driving balls over the fence. The consistency of this trend - a perfect 10-game under streak - indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to his actual power output. While regression toward league averages is always possible, Johnson's underlying metrics likely support this low home run rate continuing. The risk lies in a potential park change or lineup adjustment that could alter his approach, but his fundamental skill set suggests limited home run upside.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Johnson's zero home runs across 10 games against 0.5 lines represents a clear market inefficiency. His contact-over-power profile aligns with this production, making the under a strong value play. The primary risk is variance finally catching up, but his underlying metrics support continued low home run output in favorable spots.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bryce Johnson's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Johnson went 0-10-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting zero home runs against 0.5 lines. The under delivered 90.9% ROI while overs lost 100%, creating a perfect under streak.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bryce Johnson Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Johnson's zero home runs across 10 games against 0.5 lines shows clear market inefficiency. His contact-first approach supports continued low power output in most situations.
What's Bryce Johnson's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Johnson averaged 0.0 home runs over his last 10 games compared to 0.5 lines, creating a -0.5 differential. This massive gap between production and market expectations represents significant value for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Johnson home run unders consistently, especially against 0.5 lines in pitcher-friendly parks. His contact-oriented profile and zero home runs across 10 games suggest the market consistently overvalues his power potential.