Bryan Reynolds has been a total bases disaster over his last 10 games, hitting the under at a 90% clip (9-1-0) while averaging just 1.3 total bases against a 3.6 line. This 2.3-base deficit per game represents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball. LEAN UNDER with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Reynolds's total bases collapse stems from a perfect storm of late-season factors that have neutered his offensive production. The Pirates outfielder is averaging 2.3 bases below his typical line, suggesting either a significant mechanical issue, lingering injury, or complete mental checkout as Pittsburgh limps toward season's end. The 8-game under streak within this sample indicates this isn't random variance but a sustained downturn in his ability to generate extra-base hits. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency—Reynolds isn't alternating good and bad games, he's stuck in a prolonged funk. The -80.9% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors consistently overestimating his current form while books have been slow to adjust lines downward. Late September often sees veteran players on non-contending teams mail it in, and Reynolds appears to be exhibiting classic symptoms. The lack of any over streaks longer than one game suggests whatever is plaguing Reynolds—whether physical or mental—hasn't shown signs of resolution. This type of sustained underperformance typically persists until either a significant rest period or the psychological reset that comes with a new season.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Reynolds's 90% under rate over 10 games reflects a player in complete offensive freefall, averaging 2.3 bases below expectations. The 8-game under streak suggests systematic issues rather than bad luck. Target this prop when lines remain inflated above 2.5, as books appear slow to adjust to his current form. Main risk is potential lineup changes or reduced playing time that could limit sample reliability.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bryan Reynolds's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Reynolds has gone 1-9-0 over/under on total bases props in his last 10 games, hitting the under 90% of the time. He's averaging just 1.3 total bases per game against typical lines around 3.6, creating a massive 2.3-base deficit per contest.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bryan Reynolds Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet UNDER on Reynolds's total bases props. His 90% under rate and 2.3-base average deficit represent one of baseball's most reliable trends. Target lines above 2.5 for maximum value, as his current form suggests continued struggles generating extra-base hits.
What's Bryan Reynolds's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Reynolds is averaging 1.3 total bases over his last 10 games compared to his typical line of 3.6. This 2.3-base deficit per game represents a massive underperformance that has created exceptional betting value on the under side.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Reynolds total bases unders when lines remain inflated above 2.5, particularly in day games or against quality pitching. Avoid when he's facing weak bullpens or in potential blowout spots where garbage-time production could inflate his numbers unexpectedly.