Bryan Reynolds presents one of baseball's most extreme home run under trends at home, hitting just 10.9% overs across 46 games with a catastrophic -79.2% ROI on overs. Currently riding an unprecedented 19-game under streak, Reynolds averages 0.13 home runs per home game against typical 0.5 lines. This is a strong lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Reynolds' power struggles at PNC Park. Averaging just 0.13 home runs per home game creates a massive -0.37 differential against standard 0.5 lines, suggesting books haven't adequately adjusted to his home park limitations. PNC Park's dimensions heavily favor pitchers, with its 325-foot foul territory and prevailing winds that knock down fly balls. Reynolds' swing plane appears particularly ill-suited to his home environment, as evidenced by the current 19-game under streak that defies statistical probability. The consistency of this trend across 46 games indicates systemic factors rather than variance. Reynolds likely faces familiar pitching patterns at home, with opponents attacking the strike zone more aggressively knowing the park suppresses power. His patient approach, which generates walks and doubles, doesn't translate to home run production in Pittsburgh's pitcher-friendly confines. The extreme nature of this trend suggests either continued dominance or eventual dramatic regression, but the underlying park factors and approach matchup support persistence over the short-to-medium term.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 89.1% under rate over 46 games reflects genuine environmental and approach factors rather than pure variance. PNC Park's pitcher-friendly dimensions create a sustainable edge, particularly with Reynolds' line-drive swing profile. The 19-game under streak adds momentum, though regression risk prevents a stronger recommendation. Target this prop when lines remain at 0.5, as any movement to 0.5+ significantly improves value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bryan Reynolds's Home Runs prop record home games?
Reynolds has gone 5-41-0 on home run overs in home games, hitting just 10.9% overs with a devastating -79.2% ROI for over bettors. He's currently on a 19-game under streak, the longest in the sample.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bryan Reynolds Home Runs home games?
Bet under on Reynolds' home run props at home. The 89.1% under rate over 46 games reflects genuine park factors and swing profile mismatches that create sustainable betting value against standard 0.5 lines.
What's Bryan Reynolds's average Home Runs home games?
Reynolds averages 0.13 home runs per home game compared to typical 0.5 lines, creating a massive -0.37 differential. This gap suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his power struggles at pitcher-friendly PNC Park.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Reynolds home run unders when lines remain at 0.5, particularly in day games when PNC Park's dimensions play even larger. Avoid when lines drop below 0.5, as the value diminishes significantly.