Bryan Reynolds shows a massive home run power drop in away games, hitting the over just 19.0% of the time (8-34-0) with an average of 0.24 home runs versus typical lines around 0.52. This represents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball, delivering +54.5% ROI on under bets.
Expert Analysis
Reynolds' road power struggles stem from multiple converging factors that create a systematic edge for under bettors. His 0.24 home run average away from PNC Park represents a 54% decline from his typical prop lines, indicating books haven't fully adjusted to his extreme home/road splits. The Pirates outfielder faces the psychological pressure of hostile environments while losing the familiar dimensions and sight lines of his home ballpark. PNC Park's shorter right field (320 feet) particularly benefits Reynolds' pull-heavy approach, while road venues often feature deeper dimensions that turn his fly balls into routine outs. The consistency of this trend is remarkable - Reynolds has managed just eight home runs across 42 road games, with his longest over streak reaching only two games compared to a brutal 10-game under streak. His road power outage appears structural rather than random variance, as away games eliminate the comfort factors that enable his home power surge. The -63.6% ROI on overs reflects how dramatically books overestimate his road power potential, creating persistent value on the under. This isn't a small sample fluke but rather a fundamental aspect of Reynolds' profile that sharp bettors can exploit consistently throughout his road schedule.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Reynolds' 19.0% over rate in away games represents one of baseball's most reliable under trends, driven by his extreme home/road power splits and books' failure to properly adjust lines. Target this when he faces quality pitching on the road or in pitcher-friendly ballparks. The main risk is a hot streak breaking through, but his 10-game under streak demonstrates the trend's persistence.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bryan Reynolds's Home Runs prop record away games?
Reynolds has gone 8-34-0 on home run overs in away games (19.0% over rate) across 42 games from June 2023 to September 2024, delivering exceptional under value with +54.5% ROI for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bryan Reynolds Home Runs away games?
Bet UNDER on Reynolds' home run props in away games with high confidence. His 0.24 road average versus 0.52 typical lines creates consistent value, supported by an 81% under rate and strong ROI data.
What's Bryan Reynolds's average Home Runs away games?
Reynolds averages 0.24 home runs per away game, significantly below the typical prop line of 0.52. This -0.28 differential represents a massive 54% decline from expected output, creating systematic under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Reynolds home run unders specifically in road games against quality pitching staffs or in pitcher-friendly ballparks. Avoid when he's facing weak pitching at hitter-friendly venues where variance could break the trend.