Bryan Reynolds home runs props present one of the most consistent under opportunities in baseball, with an extraordinary 13-75-0 record (14.8% overs) that generates +62.7% ROI on unders. Reynolds averages just 0.18 home runs per game against typical 0.5 lines, creating a massive -0.3 differential that makes UNDER the clear play.
Expert Analysis
The Bryan Reynolds home runs under represents a systematic market inefficiency driven by several converging factors. His 0.18 home runs per game average sits dramatically below standard 0.5 lines, creating consistent value on unders across 88 games. This isn't a small sample fluke—Reynolds has managed just 13 overs in nearly two full seasons of tracking, including a remarkable 26-game under streak that demonstrates the persistence of this pattern. The Pirates' offensive environment compounds this edge, as Reynolds typically bats in situations with limited run production support. His swing profile favors contact over power, generating doubles and triples rather than clearing fences consistently. The 14.8% over rate is so extreme it suggests books are slow to adjust lines appropriately, possibly overvaluing his name recognition from All-Star appearances. Market perception likely inflates his power expectations beyond actual production, especially given Pittsburgh's pitcher-friendly home park dimensions. The -71.8% ROI on overs confirms bettors consistently lose backing Reynolds to go yard, while under backers enjoy substantial profits. This trend shows no signs of meaningful regression, as Reynolds' batted ball data and approach haven't fundamentally changed to suggest a power surge is imminent.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Reynolds' 0.18 home runs per game average creates massive value against 0.5 lines, supported by an 85.2% under rate over 88 games. The 26-game under streak and consistent -0.3 differential indicate this isn't variance but a fundamental mismatch between perception and production. Main risk is an occasional hot streak, but the sample size and consistency make this among the strongest under plays in baseball. Target standard 0.5 lines for maximum edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bryan Reynolds's Home Runs prop record all games?
Bryan Reynolds has a 13-75-0 home runs prop record across all games, hitting just 14.8% overs with a -71.8% ROI on over bets and +62.7% ROI on unders over 88 games tracked.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bryan Reynolds Home Runs all games?
Bet UNDER on Bryan Reynolds home runs props with high confidence. His 0.18 average against 0.5 lines creates massive value, supported by an 85.2% under rate and consistent profitability over nearly two seasons.
What's Bryan Reynolds's average Home Runs all games?
Bryan Reynolds averages 0.18 home runs per game compared to typical 0.5 lines, creating a -0.3 differential. This significant gap between production and market expectations drives the consistent under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Reynolds home runs unders when lines are set at 0.5, especially at Pittsburgh's pitcher-friendly home park. Avoid during hot streaks, but the 88-game sample suggests consistent opportunities throughout the season.