Bryan Reynolds shows a marginal edge on hits overs in away games, posting a 52.4% over rate (22-20-0) across 42 games. However, his 1.02 average sits slightly below the typical 1.05 line, creating a near-neutral situation with minimal expected value.
Expert Analysis
The Reynolds away hits data presents a classic case of market efficiency meeting marginal edges. His 52.4% over rate suggests a slight tendency to exceed expectations on the road, but the microscopic average differential (-0.03) indicates books are pricing him accurately. The flat 0.0% ROI on overs confirms this market balance, while the -9.1% under ROI suggests consistent juice extraction rather than genuine edge. Reynolds's road performance likely benefits from reduced pressure in opposing ballparks, but this advantage appears already baked into the pricing. The balanced streak patterns (5-game max in either direction) indicate no persistent momentum effects. Without additional context like opposing pitcher handedness, ballpark factors, or recent form trends, this becomes a pure numbers play where the slight over tendency barely overcomes the inherent vig disadvantage. The 42-game sample provides adequate data reliability, but the narrow margins make this more of a coin flip than a systematic edge. Any betting consideration should focus on specific game conditions rather than this broad away trend.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with LOW confidence. The 52.4% over rate provides a marginal edge, but Reynolds's 1.02 average against typical 1.05 lines creates minimal value. Best deployed when the line drops to 0.5 hits or when favorable matchup conditions align. Main risk is the razor-thin margins that make this essentially a break-even proposition over time.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bryan Reynolds's Hits prop record away games?
Bryan Reynolds has gone over his hits prop in 22 of 42 away games (52.4%) since June 2023, with 20 unders and no pushes. This represents a slight but consistent tendency to exceed expectations on the road.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bryan Reynolds Hits away games?
Lean over on Reynolds hits props away from home, but only with favorable conditions. The 52.4% over rate provides minimal edge, so wait for reduced lines (0.5 hits) or strong matchup spots to maximize value.
What's Bryan Reynolds's average Hits away games?
Reynolds averages 1.02 hits per game in away contests, sitting 0.03 hits below the typical 1.05 betting line. This small differential creates near-neutral expected value despite the slight over tendency.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Reynolds hits overs when the line drops to 0.5 hits or when facing struggling right-handed pitching. Avoid betting this prop at standard lines without additional favorable factors given the minimal edge.