Bryan Reynolds hits props show minimal edge with a 51.1% over rate (45-43 record) across 88 games. His 1.15 average barely exceeds the typical 1.12 line, creating a razor-thin +0.03 differential that generates negative ROI on both sides. This is a clear pass situation.
Expert Analysis
Reynolds presents one of the most neutral prop betting scenarios you'll encounter, which paradoxically makes it dangerous for bettors seeking action. His 1.15 hits per game average sits just three percentage points above the standard 1.12 line, creating the illusion of value where none exists. The -2.4% ROI on overs and -6.7% on unders tells the real story—the books have this number dialed in perfectly. Reynolds's consistency works against bettors here, as he lacks the volatility that creates exploitable edges. His 11-game over streak followed by a 7-game under streak demonstrates he can get hot and cold, but these streaks are bookended by regression that eliminates long-term profit. The Pirates' offensive environment and Reynolds's role as a contact hitter create predictable outcomes that sportsbooks price efficiently. Without meaningful splits data or situational edges, this prop represents pure coin-flip territory with built-in house edge. Smart money recognizes when a number is fairly priced and moves on to better spots.
Betting Verdict
PASS with HIGH confidence. Reynolds's hits prop is textbook efficient market pricing with no exploitable edge. The microscopic +0.03 average differential gets erased by juice and natural variance. Both sides show negative ROI, confirming the books have this dialed in perfectly. Save your bankroll for props with actual mathematical advantages rather than chasing action on a coin flip.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bryan Reynolds's Hits prop record all games?
Reynolds has gone over his hits prop in 45 of 88 games (51.1%) with 43 unders. His 1.15 hits per game average barely exceeds the typical 1.12 line, creating minimal separation for betting purposes.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bryan Reynolds Hits all games?
Pass entirely on Reynolds hits props. Both overs (-2.4% ROI) and unders (-6.7% ROI) show negative returns. The 51.1% over rate with razor-thin average differential offers no mathematical edge worth pursuing.
What's Bryan Reynolds's average Hits all games?
Reynolds averages 1.15 hits per game compared to the standard 1.12 line, creating just a +0.03 differential. This microscopic edge gets eliminated by juice and variance, making it unprofitable long-term.
How reliable is this trend?
There's no optimal time to bet Reynolds hits props. Without meaningful splits or situational data, and with negative ROI on both sides, this represents efficient market pricing best avoided entirely.