Brooks Baldwin has been a total bases disaster in away games, going over just 27.3% of the time with a brutal -47.9% ROI on overs. His 0.91 average sits 1.6 bases below the typical 2.5 line, creating exceptional under value.
Expert Analysis
Baldwin's away struggles represent a textbook case of road environment impact on offensive production. His 0.91 total bases average away from home suggests fundamental issues with pitch recognition and timing in unfamiliar ballparks. The 27.3% over rate isn't just poor luck—it reflects consistent underperformance against the market expectation. The -1.6 differential between his average and the standard line indicates books haven't fully adjusted to his road struggles, creating persistent value on unders. His current three-game under streak extends what has been a dominant pattern, with his longest under streak reaching five games compared to just three overs. The sample size of 11 games provides meaningful data without being so extensive that regression becomes inevitable. Most concerning for over bettors is the consistency of his struggles—this isn't a player who alternates good and bad games, but rather someone who consistently fails to reach the threshold away from home. The +38.8% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't just a statistical quirk but a profitable betting pattern. Road environments typically suppress offensive numbers due to unfamiliar sightlines, different mound heights, and crowd noise, factors that appear to significantly impact Baldwin's approach at the plate.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Baldwin's 0.91 away average creates massive value against any line at 2.0 or higher, with the standard 2.5 representing exceptional under value. The combination of his 72.7% under rate and +38.8% ROI makes this one of the strongest prop trends available. Main risk is sample size regression, but his consistent struggles suggest this pattern has staying power through season's end.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brooks Baldwin's Total Bases prop record away games?
Baldwin has gone 3-8-0 on total bases overs in away games, hitting just 27.3% of overs with a devastating -47.9% ROI. Unders have been profitable at +38.8% ROI across 11 road contests.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brooks Baldwin Total Bases away games?
Bet under on Baldwin's total bases in away games. His 0.91 average is 1.6 bases below typical lines, and unders have hit 72.7% of the time with strong profitability.
What's Brooks Baldwin's average Total Bases away games?
Baldwin averages 0.91 total bases in away games compared to the standard 2.5 line, creating a massive 1.6-base deficit that consistently favors under bettors seeking value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Baldwin total bases unders specifically in away games where his struggles are most pronounced. Avoid home games where this negative trend doesn't apply to his offensive production.