Brooks Baldwin has been a disaster for hits overs, going 2-8-0 (20.0% over rate) in his last 10 games with a brutal -61.8% ROI. He's averaging just 0.9 hits against a 1.7 line, creating an 0.8-hit deficit. Lean under with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Baldwin's hits production has fallen off a cliff, averaging 0.8 hits below his typical line over this 10-game stretch. The 20% over rate signals a fundamental shift in his offensive approach or opposing pitcher adjustments that bettors haven't fully priced in. His current five-game under streak suggests this isn't random variance but a sustained downturn in contact quality or plate discipline. The -0.8 differential between his average and the line indicates books may be slow to adjust, creating continued value on unders. However, regression risk looms large with such an extreme sample. Baldwin's career contact rates and the White Sox's offensive struggles provide context for this decline, but 10 games represents a small sample where one hot streak could quickly flip the narrative. The persistence of this trend through different opponents and game situations adds credibility, but the severity suggests either injury concerns or mechanical issues that could resolve suddenly. Without split data, we can't identify optimal spots, making this more of a blanket fade until he shows signs of breaking out of this funk.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Baldwin's 0.8-hit deficit per game and five-game under streak create exploitable value, especially if books remain slow to adjust the line downward. The ideal spot is any game where his hits line stays at 1.5 or higher. Main risk is regression to career norms, as this extreme downturn likely represents temporary struggles rather than permanent decline.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brooks Baldwin's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Brooks Baldwin has gone 2-8-0 on hits overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of over bets. Under bettors have profited with a +52.7% ROI while over backers lost 61.8% of their investment during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brooks Baldwin Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on Baldwin's hits props. He's averaging 0.9 hits against a 1.7 line, creating 0.8 hits of value per game. His five-game under streak and 20% over rate make unders the clear play until he shows improvement.
What's Brooks Baldwin's average Hits last 10 games?
Baldwin is averaging 0.9 hits over his last 10 games compared to his typical 1.7 line. This creates a massive 0.8-hit deficit per game, explaining why unders have been profitable at +52.7% ROI during this stretch.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Baldwin hits unders when his line remains at 1.5 or higher, as books appear slow to adjust. Avoid betting after any multi-hit games, as regression risk increases significantly given the extreme nature of this 10-game downturn.