Brett Baty shows a compelling 60% over rate on Total Bases props in away games, hitting 6 of 10 with a 1.3 average versus a typical 1.1 line. The +14.6% ROI on overs demonstrates legitimate value in this small but profitable sample.
Expert Analysis
Baty's road performance suggests he thrives away from the pressure of Citi Field's demanding fanbase. The 1.3 average against a 1.1 line creates consistent value, though the 10-game sample demands caution. His ability to string together a 5-game over streak indicates periods of sustained offensive production on the road. The current 1-game under streak actually presents opportunity, as his longest cold spell was just 3 games. Young players often perform better away from home crowd expectations, and Baty appears to fit this profile. The +0.2 differential between his average and typical lines suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his road splits. However, the limited sample size means one prolonged slump could quickly erode this edge. The -23.6% under ROI reinforces that betting against Baty's road production has been costly. His Total Bases prop benefits from any extra-base hits, making him particularly valuable in hitter-friendly road environments where he can maximize his power potential without the pressure of home expectations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Baty's 60% over rate and +0.2 average differential create genuine value in away games. The current 1-under streak actually presents a buying opportunity after his demonstrated ability to bounce back quickly. Target road games against weaker pitching or in favorable hitting environments to maximize the edge while respecting the limited sample size.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-07-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brett Baty's Total Bases prop record away games?
Brett Baty has gone over his Total Bases prop in 6 of 10 away games (60% rate) with a 1.3 average. This translates to a +14.6% ROI on over bets while under bets have lost -23.6%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brett Baty Total Bases away games?
Lean over on Brett Baty's Total Bases in away games. The 60% over rate and consistent +0.2 differential above typical lines create medium-confidence value, especially after his current 1-game under streak.
What's Brett Baty's average Total Bases away games?
Brett Baty averages 1.3 Total Bases in away games, which is 0.2 above the typical 1.1 line. This differential has produced profitable over betting opportunities in 6 of his 10 road appearances.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Brett Baty's Total Bases props in away games against weaker pitching staffs or in hitter-friendly ballparks. His road performance consistently outpaces home expectations, creating the best value opportunities.