Brett Baty's Total Bases prop shows clear value on the under, hitting just 48.1% overs across 27 games with a -0.3 average differential below the typical 1.24 line. The under delivers superior -1.0% ROI compared to the over's brutal -8.1% loss rate, creating a sustainable edge.
Expert Analysis
Baty's Total Bases struggles stem from fundamental offensive limitations that books haven't fully adjusted for in their pricing. His 0.96 average sits consistently below market expectations, suggesting oddsmakers are overvaluing his power potential based on prospect pedigree rather than MLB production. The -8.1% ROI on overs reveals systematic overpricing, while the under's near-breakeven -1.0% ROI indicates more accurate line setting on that side. His current three-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern of underperformance, though the previous nine-game over streak shows he can get hot. The lack of meaningful splits data suggests this isn't matchup-dependent but rather reflects his overall offensive profile. Young hitters often struggle with consistency, and Baty's 48.1% over rate indicates he's more likely to post singles and doubles rather than the extra-base production needed to clear inflated lines. The persistence of this trend across nearly 30 games provides enough sample size to suggest genuine skill-based underperformance rather than variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -0.3 differential and superior under ROI create a mathematical edge that should persist until books adjust their pricing model for Baty's actual production level. Target games where the line sits at 1.5 total bases, as his 0.96 average suggests he'll frequently fall short. Main risk is a prolonged hot streak similar to his previous nine-game over run.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-30 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brett Baty's Total Bases prop record all games?
Baty has gone 13-14-0 on Total Bases overs across 27 games, hitting just 48.1% overs. His average of 0.96 total bases falls 0.3 below the typical 1.24 line, creating consistent underperformance against market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brett Baty Total Bases all games?
Lean under on Baty's Total Bases props. The under delivers -1.0% ROI compared to the over's -8.1% loss rate, while his 0.96 average consistently falls short of standard 1.24 lines, creating mathematical value on the under side.
What's Brett Baty's average Total Bases all games?
Baty averages 0.96 total bases per game compared to the typical 1.24 line, creating a -0.3 differential. This gap indicates he consistently underperforms market expectations, suggesting books haven't adjusted pricing to match his actual production level.
How reliable is this trend?
Target games with 1.5 total bases lines where Baty's 0.96 average creates maximum value. Avoid betting after extended over streaks, as his nine-game over run shows he can get hot and temporarily outperform his baseline production.