Brandon Pfaadt has hit the over in 6 of his last 10 strikeout props, posting a solid 60% over rate with a +0.4 differential above the typical 5.2 line. The +14.6% ROI on overs suggests consistent value, making this a lean over situation.
Expert Analysis
Pfaadt's strikeout prop performance reveals a pitcher who consistently exceeds modest market expectations. His 5.6 average against a 5.2 line represents meaningful value, particularly given the 60% hit rate over a substantial 10-game sample. The +14.6% ROI on overs indicates the market has been slow to adjust to his strikeout capabilities, creating a persistent edge for sharp bettors. What makes this trend compelling is the consistency - while Pfaadt doesn't dominate with double-digit strikeout games, he reliably reaches that 5-6 strikeout range that pushes him over conservative lines. The fact that unders have produced a brutal -23.6% ROI suggests books are pricing him too conservatively, possibly viewing him as a back-end starter rather than recognizing his strikeout upside. However, the modest differential warns against chasing inflated lines, and the recent 2-game over streak could indicate some market adjustment. The key is identifying spots where the line remains in that 5.0-5.5 range where Pfaadt has historically provided value.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Pfaadt's consistent ability to exceed the 5.2 average line, combined with the strong +14.6% ROI on overs, creates a sustainable edge when the prop sits in the 5.0-5.5 range. Target games where he faces lineups with higher strikeout rates or when the line hasn't adjusted upward. Main risk is market correction pushing lines too high.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 9.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 5.5 | 12.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 5.5 | 0.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 5.5 | 10.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-25 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 5.5 | 0.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brandon Pfaadt's Strikeouts prop record last 10 games?
Pfaadt has gone over his strikeout prop in 6 of his last 10 games for a 60% success rate. He's averaging 5.6 strikeouts against a typical line of 5.2, generating a solid +0.4 differential that has produced consistent value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brandon Pfaadt Strikeouts last 10 games?
Lean over on Pfaadt's strikeout props when the line sits at 5.5 or below. His 60% over rate and +14.6% ROI on overs indicate the market consistently undervalues his strikeout ability, creating sustainable betting value.
What's Brandon Pfaadt's average Strikeouts last 10 games?
Pfaadt is averaging 5.6 strikeouts over his last 10 games compared to the typical 5.2 line, creating a +0.4 differential. This consistent outperformance above modest expectations has generated solid value for over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pfaadt strikeout overs when the line remains at 5.5 or below, particularly against lineups with higher strikeout rates. Avoid when lines inflate above 6.0, as his value comes from exceeding conservative expectations, not dominant performances.