Brandon Nimmo's total bases prop has been a consistent under play over his last 10 games, hitting just 30% overs with a brutal -0.9 differential from the typical 2.5 line. The under has delivered a strong 33.6% ROI, making it the clear lean moving forward.
Expert Analysis
Brandon Nimmo's total bases struggles over this 10-game sample reflect a concerning offensive downturn that extends beyond normal variance. Averaging just 1.6 total bases against a standard 2.5 line creates nearly a full base of value on the under, which is substantial in baseball props. The 3-7 over/under record tells only part of the story—the consistency of the underperformance is what makes this trend compelling. Nimmo has strung together a four-game under streak within this sample, suggesting mechanical or approach issues rather than random cold shooting. The -42.7% ROI on overs indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to his recent struggles, potentially overvaluing his season-long numbers. This type of sustained underperformance in total bases typically stems from decreased hard contact, more patient approaches leading to walks over hits, or facing tougher pitching. Without splits data, we're operating on the assumption that this represents a genuine slump rather than situational factors. The risk here is regression to career norms, but the magnitude of underperformance suggests this trend has more runway before books fully adjust their lines downward.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The nearly one full base differential between Nimmo's recent average and typical lines creates meaningful value, especially given the 33.6% under ROI. Target this prop when lines remain at 2.5 or higher, as the market appears slow to adjust to his recent struggles. Primary risk is immediate regression to career norms.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brandon Nimmo's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Nimmo has gone 3-7 over/under on total bases props in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% overs. He's averaging 1.6 total bases compared to typical 2.5 lines, creating a significant -0.9 differential that favors under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brandon Nimmo Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Nimmo's total bases props. The consistent underperformance, 33.6% under ROI, and nearly one full base differential from standard lines creates compelling value. The market appears slow to adjust to his recent struggles.
What's Brandon Nimmo's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Nimmo is averaging 1.6 total bases over his last 10 games, nearly a full base below the typical 2.5 line. This -0.9 differential represents significant underperformance and creates substantial value for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Nimmo's total bases props when lines remain at 2.5 or higher, indicating the market hasn't fully adjusted. Avoid when lines drop to 2.0 or lower, as the value disappears and regression risk increases significantly.