Brandon Nimmo's total bases props present a compelling under opportunity with just 32.9% overs across 79 games. His 1.57 average falls 0.8 bases short of the typical 2.37 line, generating +28.1% ROI on unders. This represents a clear systematic edge favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
Brandon Nimmo's total bases performance reveals a consistent pattern of underperformance that creates significant betting value. The Mets leadoff hitter averages just 1.57 total bases per game against lines typically set around 2.37, creating a substantial 0.8-base gap that translates to profitable under betting. This isn't a small sample anomaly—across 79 games spanning over a year, Nimmo has hit the over just 26 times while going under 53 times. The +28.1% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't just about win rate but actual profit generation. Nimmo's profile as a patient leadoff hitter who works counts and takes walks naturally suppresses his total bases production. His approach prioritizes getting on base over extra-base hits, which directly conflicts with what total bases props reward. The 12-game under streak in his recent history shows this tendency can persist for extended periods. While his longest over streak reached just 3 games, suggesting limited hot streaks, the consistency of his under performance indicates this is more about playing style than temporary slump. The -37.2% ROI on overs further confirms that betting against Nimmo's power production has been the profitable approach, making this one of the more reliable under trends in baseball props.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Nimmo's 1.57 average creating a 0.8-base deficit against typical lines represents genuine value, supported by strong +28.1% under ROI. His patient leadoff approach naturally limits total bases upside, making unders the preferred play when lines exceed 2.0. The main risk involves potential lineup changes or hot streaks, but his 12-game under streak demonstrates this trend's persistence.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brandon Nimmo's Total Bases prop record all games?
Brandon Nimmo has gone 26-53 on total bases overs across 79 games, hitting just 32.9% of overs. This represents one of the more reliable under trends in baseball, with unders cashing at a 67.1% rate over more than a full season sample.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brandon Nimmo Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Brandon Nimmo's total bases props when lines exceed 2.0. His 1.57 average and +28.1% under ROI make this a profitable systematic play. The 0.8-base gap between his production and typical lines creates consistent value on unders.
What's Brandon Nimmo's average Total Bases all games?
Brandon Nimmo averages 1.57 total bases per game compared to typical lines around 2.37. This 0.8-base deficit represents the core value in his under bets, as his patient leadoff approach consistently falls short of bookmaker expectations for power production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Brandon Nimmo total bases unders when lines are set at 2.5 or higher for maximum value. His patient approach and 12-game under streak capability make these props most profitable during perceived hot streaks when books inflate his lines.