Brandon Nimmo's home run props present a clear under opportunity with just 30% overs hitting over his last 10 games. The Mets outfielder is averaging 0.3 homers against typical 0.5 lines, creating a -0.2 differential that has generated +33.6% ROI on unders. This trend strongly favors the under.
Expert Analysis
Brandon Nimmo's power drought represents a significant departure from his career norms, with home runs coming at just 30% of his typical pace over this 10-game stretch. The 0.3 average against 0.5 lines creates substantial value on the under, particularly given the consistency of this trend - Nimmo has strung together a three-game under streak and shows no signs of breaking out of this slump. The -42.7% ROI on overs tells the story of a player whose power stroke has temporarily abandoned him, while under bettors have profited handsomely at +33.6% returns. This isn't random variance; it's a sustained pattern that suggests either mechanical issues or simply the natural ebb and flow of a hitter's season-long performance. The lack of recent power production becomes even more telling when considering that September typically sees hitters either surge toward career highs or fade as fatigue sets in. Nimmo appears firmly in the latter category, making his home run props prime targets for under bettors who can capitalize on books potentially overadjusting his lines based on season-long numbers rather than current form.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Nimmo's 30% over rate and -0.2 average differential create clear value on home run unders, especially when books set lines at 0.5. The +33.6% ROI on unders demonstrates sustainable profit potential. Target this play when facing standard 0.5 lines, but exercise caution if books adjust to 0.5 or lower, as that could flip the value proposition.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brandon Nimmo's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Nimmo has gone 3-7-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of his over bets. This represents a significant under-performance that has cost over bettors -42.7% ROI while rewarding under backers with +33.6% returns.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brandon Nimmo Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet under on Nimmo's home run props. His 0.3 average against 0.5 lines creates clear value, supported by a 70% under rate and profitable +33.6% ROI. The trend shows no signs of reversing with his current three-game under streak.
What's Brandon Nimmo's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Nimmo is averaging 0.3 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, sitting 0.2 below the typical 0.5 line. This substantial gap below market expectations has created consistent value for under bettors throughout this stretch.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Nimmo home run unders when books set standard 0.5 lines, particularly during day games or against quality pitching. His late-season power fade makes him an ideal candidate for under bets when facing typical market pricing.