Brandon Marsh has been a total bases disaster over his last 10 games, going under in 70% of contests with a brutal -1.1 differential from his typical 2.7 line. This 30% over rate represents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball, generating +33.6% ROI for under bettors.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a stark story of offensive decline for Brandon Marsh, whose total bases production has cratered over this 10-game stretch. Averaging just 1.6 total bases against lines typically set around 2.7, Marsh is falling short by more than a full base per game. This isn't random variance—it's systematic underperformance that suggests either injury concerns, mechanical issues, or simply a cold streak that books haven't fully adjusted to. The -42.7% ROI on overs indicates the market is still overvaluing Marsh's recent production, likely anchored to earlier season numbers. Most telling is the streak pattern: while Marsh managed a brief 2-game over stretch, he's bookended by longer under runs, including a 3-game under streak that shows consistent struggles. The 70% under rate over 10 games represents a significant sample for prop betting, especially when coupled with the massive production gap. This trend has persistence written all over it, as total bases props often lag behind actual form adjustments. Marsh's plate discipline and power metrics have likely deteriorated, but oddsmakers remain slow to react to the new reality.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Brandon Marsh's total bases props are mispriced, with books failing to adjust to his recent offensive struggles. The 1.6 average against 2.7 lines creates consistent value on unders, especially given the 70% hit rate. Target this when lines remain at 2.5 or higher, as the gap between expectation and reality remains too wide to ignore.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brandon Marsh's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Brandon Marsh has gone 3-7-0 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of over bets. He's averaging 1.6 total bases while his typical line sits around 2.7, creating a significant gap.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brandon Marsh Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Brandon Marsh total bases props with high confidence. The 70% under rate and +33.6% ROI on unders shows clear value, as books haven't adjusted to his recent struggles.
What's Brandon Marsh's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Brandon Marsh is averaging 1.6 total bases over his last 10 games, falling 1.1 bases short of his typical 2.7 line. This massive differential represents one of the largest gaps in baseball props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Brandon Marsh total bases unders when lines remain at 2.5 or higher, particularly in day games or against quality pitching where his struggles are most pronounced and books are slowest to adjust.