Brandon Marsh's total bases prop shows a solid 55.2% over rate with a meaningful +0.47 differential between his 2.31 average and typical 1.84 lines. The 16-13 over record across 29 games suggests consistent value on the over side, making this a lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Marsh's total bases performance reveals a player consistently exceeding modest expectations set by oddsmakers. His 2.31 average against 1.84 lines represents a substantial 25.5% edge, indicating books may be undervaluing his offensive production. The +5.3% ROI on overs versus -14.4% on unders demonstrates clear directional value. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the persistence across a meaningful 29-game sample spanning multiple seasons, suggesting this isn't random variance but reflects a systematic mispricing. Marsh's profile as a contact hitter with occasional power likely creates situations where books focus too heavily on his batting average struggles while underweighting his ability to collect multiple bases through doubles and the occasional home run. The current streak of one under shouldn't concern bettors given his longer eight-game over streak earlier in the sample. The lack of significant regression despite the positive differential suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his total bases production patterns. However, the modest sample size and potential for lineup changes or usage shifts represent the primary risks to this trend's continuation.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Marsh's consistent outperformance of total bases lines, evidenced by his 2.31 average versus 1.84 typical lines, creates sustainable value despite the modest 55.2% hit rate. The +0.47 differential and positive ROI suggest oddsmakers haven't fully caught up to his production patterns. Target overs when lines remain in the 1.5-2.0 range, but exercise caution if books adjust significantly upward.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brandon Marsh's Total Bases prop record all games?
Brandon Marsh has gone over his total bases prop 16 times and under 13 times across 29 games, producing a 55.2% over rate with a +5.3% return on investment when betting overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brandon Marsh Total Bases all games?
Bet over on Marsh's total bases props. His 2.31 average significantly exceeds typical 1.84 lines, creating consistent value with a proven 16-13 over record and positive ROI on the over side.
What's Brandon Marsh's average Total Bases all games?
Marsh averages 2.31 total bases per game, which is 0.47 bases higher than his typical 1.84 prop line. This 25.5% differential represents substantial value for over bettors consistently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Marsh total bases overs when lines remain in the 1.5-2.0 range, particularly after brief under streaks. His eight-game over streak shows potential for extended hot periods when conditions align favorably.