Bo Bichette's home run props at Rogers Centre present one of baseball's most reliable under bets, going 3-20-0 with just a 13.0% over rate across 23 games. His 0.13 average sits 0.37 runs below the typical 0.5 line, creating consistent value on the under despite the juice.
Expert Analysis
Bichette's home run struggles at Rogers Centre stem from a perfect storm of unfavorable factors. The venue's dimensions work against his swing profile—left field stretches 328 feet with a 19-foot wall, while center field extends 400 feet. His ground ball tendencies and line drive approach don't translate to consistent power at home, where he's managed just three home runs across 23 games spanning over a year. The 11-game under streak isn't a fluke but rather reflects his fundamental mismatch with the ballpark's characteristics. His swing generates solid contact but lacks the launch angle consistency needed to clear Rogers Centre's deeper dimensions. The -75.1% ROI on overs tells the story—this isn't variance but a systematic disadvantage. Even when Bichette connects well, balls that might leave smaller parks die on the warning track in Toronto. The 0.13 home run average represents genuine expectation, not temporary slump. Regression concerns are minimal given the sample size and underlying mechanics. Weather factors at Rogers Centre, including frequent dome closure and controlled conditions, eliminate the wind-aided home runs that might help elsewhere. This trend has persistence because the core factors—ballpark dimensions, swing profile, and approach—remain constant.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 13.0% over rate across 23 games reflects genuine expectation rather than bad luck, making this one of baseball's most reliable prop unders. Target this when the line sits at 0.5, especially during homestands when you can capitalize multiple times. The primary risk is an unusually hot stretch, but even then, Rogers Centre's dimensions limit upside.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bo Bichette's Home Runs prop record home games?
Bo Bichette has gone 3-20-0 on home run props in home games, hitting the over just 13.0% of the time across 23 games from May 2023 through July 2024, making it one of baseball's most lopsided prop records.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bo Bichette Home Runs home games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Bichette's 0.13 home run average at Rogers Centre sits well below typical 0.5 lines, and the ballpark's dimensions systematically work against his swing profile and power output.
What's Bo Bichette's average Home Runs home games?
Bichette averages 0.13 home runs per game at Rogers Centre, sitting 0.37 runs below the standard 0.5 line. This massive differential creates consistent value on unders when the line is set appropriately.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bichette home run unders during Blue Jays homestands when the line sits at 0.5. Avoid when he's particularly hot or facing weak pitching, but the ballpark dimensions provide edge in most situations.