Blake Perkins shows a clear under bias in Total Bases props during away games, going under in 58.8% of contests (10-7-0 record). His 1.18 average falls 0.08 bases short of the typical 1.26 line, generating a profitable 12.3% ROI on under bets. This represents a lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Blake Perkins's away game Total Bases performance reveals a meaningful edge that stems from his role as a defensive-first center fielder with limited offensive upside on the road. The 1.18 average versus 1.26 line creates an 0.08 base gap that compounds over time, particularly problematic given his low-power profile that makes multi-base hits rare. Road environments typically suppress offensive numbers league-wide, and Perkins appears especially susceptible to this effect given his contact-oriented approach that relies on favorable home park dimensions. The 17-game sample provides adequate data for a role player, showing consistent underperformance rather than random variance. His 41.2% over rate indicates books may be overvaluing his Total Bases potential in away contests, possibly influenced by occasional hot streaks that inflate perception. The -21.4% ROI on overs confirms this isn't close to a coin flip situation. Most concerning for over bettors is Perkins's limited power ceiling - he needs multiple hits or extra-base contact to reach higher lines, both less likely on the road against unfamiliar pitching staffs and ballpark dimensions that don't favor his spray-hitting style.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 58.8% under rate combined with positive 12.3% ROI on under bets creates a sustainable edge, particularly when lines sit at 1.5 or higher. Target away games against quality pitching staffs or in pitcher-friendly ballparks where Perkins's contact approach gets neutralized. Main risk involves small sample variance and potential lineup changes affecting his opportunities, but the underlying offensive limitations support continued under performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-07-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-07-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Blake Perkins's Total Bases prop record away games?
Blake Perkins has gone 7-10-0 on Total Bases overs in away games, hitting the under in 58.8% of contests. His away average of 1.18 Total Bases consistently falls short of the typical 1.26 line by 0.08 bases.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Blake Perkins Total Bases away games?
Bet under on Blake Perkins's Total Bases in away games. The data shows a 58.8% under rate with positive 12.3% ROI, while over bets lose money at -21.4% ROI. Target lines of 1.5 or higher for best value.
What's Blake Perkins's average Total Bases away games?
Blake Perkins averages 1.18 Total Bases in away games compared to the typical 1.26 line. This 0.08 base deficit represents a meaningful gap for a contact hitter with limited power upside on the road.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Blake Perkins Total Bases unders in away games against quality pitching staffs or in pitcher-friendly ballparks. His contact approach gets neutralized on the road, making higher lines particularly vulnerable to under results.