Blake Perkins presents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball, posting a catastrophic 1-19-0 record (5.0% overs) on home run props at home with an average of just 0.05 home runs versus a 0.55 line. This represents a massive -0.5 differential that screams systematic under value.
Expert Analysis
Blake Perkins's home run futility at American Family Field represents a textbook case of market inefficiency meeting player limitations. His 0.05 home run average at home sits a staggering 0.5 runs below the typical 0.55 line, creating a chasm that reflects both his contact-oriented profile and Milwaukee's pitcher-friendly dimensions. The Brewers' home ballpark ranks among the more challenging environments for power production, with its spacious foul territory and neutral-to-pitcher-friendly characteristics that suppress offensive output. Perkins's role as a defensive-first center fielder means his at-bats often come in lower-leverage situations, reducing his opportunities for premium pitches to drive. The 15-game under streak isn't a fluke—it's a mathematical inevitability when a player averaging one home run every 20 home games faces lines suggesting he should connect every other game. His swing mechanics and approach prioritize contact over power, making him fundamentally misaligned with home run production expectations. The consistency of this trend across different months and opponents suggests the underlying factors—ballpark, role, skill set—remain constant. While regression is always possible in baseball, Perkins would need a dramatic change in approach or role to meaningfully challenge these lines. The 81.4% under ROI reflects not just a hot streak, but a sustainable edge rooted in player evaluation and park factors.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Blake Perkins's home run props at Milwaukee represent premium betting value, with his 0.05 average creating a massive gap versus standard 0.55 lines. The combination of his contact-first approach, American Family Field's pitcher-friendly dimensions, and his defensive-specialist role creates a perfect storm for continued under performance. Risk remains minimal given the 15-game streak and fundamental mismatch between his skill set and power expectations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Home Runs Prop Lines
Compare Blake Perkins props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Blake Perkins's Home Runs prop record home games?
Blake Perkins has gone 1-19-0 on home run over/under props in home games, hitting just 5.0% of overs with an average of 0.05 home runs per game. This represents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball betting.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Blake Perkins Home Runs home games?
Bet under on Blake Perkins home run props at home with high confidence. His 0.05 average sits 0.5 runs below typical lines, creating massive value on unders backed by 15 consecutive under results and 81.4% ROI.
What's Blake Perkins's average Home Runs home games?
Blake Perkins averages 0.05 home runs per home game compared to typical lines around 0.55, creating a staggering -0.5 differential. This means he produces one home run roughly every 20 home games while lines suggest every other game.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Blake Perkins home run unders consistently at Milwaukee, especially when lines sit at 0.5 or higher. His contact-first profile and American Family Field's dimensions create ideal conditions for sustained under performance regardless of opponent.