Blake Perkins presents one of the most reliable under plays in baseball with a perfect 0-16-0 record on home run overs in away games. The Brewers outfielder averages exactly 0.0 home runs per road contest against a standard 0.5 line, creating a massive -0.5 differential that translates to +90.9% ROI on unders.
Expert Analysis
Blake Perkins's road home run futility stems from a combination of limited power profile and environmental factors that compound away from Miller Park. As a contact-oriented outfielder, Perkins lacks the raw power metrics that translate to consistent home run production, particularly in unfamiliar ballparks where he cannot leverage knowledge of wind patterns and dimensions. The 16-game sample spanning over a year demonstrates remarkable consistency in this weakness, suggesting this isn't random variance but a fundamental limitation in his offensive profile. Road games inherently present additional challenges including travel fatigue, unfamiliar pitcher tendencies, and hostile environments that can affect timing and approach. Perkins's swing mechanics and launch angle data likely favor line drives over the elevated contact needed for home runs, making the 0.5 line essentially insurmountable in road environments. The perfect 0-16 record indicates oddsmakers may be slow to adjust, creating persistent value on unders. However, regression concerns exist with any extreme streak, and one swing change or favorable ballpark could break the pattern. The sample size, while substantial for this specific split, represents a relatively small portion of his overall career arc.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Blake Perkins's road home run drought represents elite betting value with a perfect 16-0 under record and +90.9% ROI. His contact-oriented profile and environmental disadvantages away from home create a sustainable edge against the standard 0.5 line. Target this play in pitcher-friendly ballparks and against quality pitching staffs. The primary risk is natural regression, but his power limitations suggest this trend has staying power through season's end.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Blake Perkins's Home Runs prop record away games?
Blake Perkins has gone 0-16-0 on home run overs in away games, meaning he has failed to hit a home run in all 16 road contests tracked. This represents a perfect under record with zero overs hit across more than a full season of road games.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Blake Perkins Home Runs away games?
Bet the UNDER on Blake Perkins home runs in away games with high confidence. His perfect 0-16 record and +90.9% ROI on unders, combined with his contact-oriented profile, makes this one of the most reliable under plays in baseball.
What's Blake Perkins's average Home Runs away games?
Blake Perkins averages exactly 0.0 home runs per away game against the standard 0.5 line, creating a massive -0.5 differential. This means he falls short of the betting line by half a home run in every single road contest tracked.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Blake Perkins home run unders in pitcher-friendly ballparks and against quality pitching staffs. Road games at venues like Petco Park, Marlins Park, or against aces provide optimal conditions where his power limitations are most pronounced.