Blake Perkins has delivered one of the most reliable under trends in baseball, going under his home run total in 35 of 36 games (97.2% under rate) with a devastating -94.7% ROI on overs. Currently riding a 23-game under streak, Perkins represents exceptional value on home run unders.
Expert Analysis
Blake Perkins's home run production represents a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and reality. Averaging just 0.03 home runs per game against a typical 0.5 line creates a massive -0.5 differential that speaks to his profile as a contact-first outfielder rather than a power threat. The 97.2% under rate across 36 games isn't a small sample fluke—it's a reflection of Perkins's approach and skill set. As a center fielder who prioritizes speed and defense, Perkins lacks the raw power metrics that drive consistent home run production. His swing path and launch angle tendencies favor line drives over the elevated contact needed for home runs. The 23-game under streak demonstrates remarkable consistency, suggesting this isn't variance but rather a player whose true talent level sits well below market pricing. Books continue setting his line at 0.5, likely due to positional adjustments and general baseball home run inflation, but Perkins's spray chart and batted ball data paint a clear picture of a player who simply doesn't elevate enough to threaten fences regularly. The lack of even occasional power bursts—just one over in 36 games—indicates this trend has staying power rather than being due for regression.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Blake Perkins's home run under represents one of baseball's most reliable betting edges, with a 97.2% success rate driven by fundamental skill set limitations rather than temporary slump. The 23-game under streak reflects his true power ceiling. Target this prop in all conditions, as Perkins lacks the raw power to consistently threaten 0.5 home run lines regardless of matchup or ballpark factors.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Blake Perkins's Home Runs prop record all games?
Blake Perkins has gone 1-35-0 on his home runs over/under across 36 games, posting a 97.2% under rate with just one over hitting since June 2023. This represents one of the most lopsided prop records in baseball.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Blake Perkins Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Blake Perkins home runs with high confidence. His 97.2% under rate and 0.03 average versus 0.5 lines create exceptional value. The 23-game under streak reflects his true power ceiling, not temporary variance.
What's Blake Perkins's average Home Runs all games?
Blake Perkins averages 0.03 home runs per game compared to typical 0.5 lines, creating a massive -0.5 differential. This gap reflects his contact-first approach and lack of power, making unders highly profitable at +85.6% ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Blake Perkins home run unders in all conditions, as his power limitations transcend matchup factors. Target this prop whenever available, as books consistently misprice his true home run ceiling at 0.5 despite overwhelming evidence.