Austin Martin has been a total bases disaster, hitting the over just once in 10 games for a brutal 10% success rate. Averaging only 1.0 total bases against a 3.1 line creates a massive 2.1 differential that screams systematic underperformance. This is a clear under lean.
Expert Analysis
Austin Martin's total bases prop presents one of the most lopsided trends you'll encounter, with the under cashing at a remarkable 90% clip over his last 10 games. The 1.0 average against a 3.1 line reveals a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and Martin's actual production. This isn't variance—it's systematic underperformance that suggests either injury concerns, role limitations, or a player simply overmatched at the major league level. The 8-game under streak following his lone over hit demonstrates remarkable consistency in failing to reach inflated lines. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the magnitude of the miss. Martin isn't falling just short of his total bases props; he's averaging 2.1 bases below the line, indicating either poor line-setting or a player whose skillset doesn't translate to consistent extra-base production. The -80.9% ROI on overs versus +71.8% on unders creates a massive edge that sophisticated bettors should exploit. While regression is always possible, the sample size and severity of underperformance suggest this reflects Martin's true talent level rather than temporary struggles. The key risk is a breakout performance that could reset market perception, but the data strongly favors continued underperformance.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Martin's 90% under rate over 10 games isn't luck—it's a pattern of systematic underperformance against inflated lines. The 2.1 average shortfall indicates either injury limitations or a player overmatched at this level. Target unders when lines remain elevated above 2.5, as the market hasn't properly adjusted to Martin's limited power production. The main risk is a rare multi-hit game with doubles, but the data overwhelmingly supports continued struggles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Austin Martin's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Austin Martin has gone 1-9-0 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 10% of his overs. He's averaging only 1.0 total bases against a typical 3.1 line, creating a massive 2.1 shortfall that has produced an 8-game under streak.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Austin Martin Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Austin Martin's total bases props with high confidence. His 90% under rate and 2.1 average shortfall against the line indicates systematic underperformance rather than variance. The data strongly supports continued struggles reaching inflated total bases numbers.
What's Austin Martin's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Martin averages just 1.0 total bases over his last 10 games compared to a typical 3.1 line. This creates a staggering 2.1 negative differential, meaning he's falling more than two full bases short of expectations on average.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Martin's total bases unders when lines remain above 2.5, as the market hasn't adjusted to his limited production. Avoid during potential breakout spots against weak pitching, but the 8-game under streak suggests consistent limitations in extra-base power.