Austin Martin's total bases props at home present a historically lopsided trend, hitting the under at an 85.7% clip with just 2 overs in 14 games. His 1.36 average sits 1.4 bases below typical lines, creating a massive -72.7% ROI for over bettors. This represents a strong under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Austin Martin's home total bases performance reveals a player fundamentally overvalued by oddsmakers in his home environment. The 1.36 average against 2.71 lines suggests books haven't adjusted to Martin's limited power profile at Target Field, where his approach appears more conservative or the conditions less favorable for extra-base production. The current 10-game under streak isn't just variance—it's systematic underperformance that spans nearly five months of data. Martin's profile as a contact-oriented outfielder without significant power translates poorly to total bases props, especially at home where he's managed just 19 total bases across 14 games. The 14.3% over rate is so extreme that even modest regression wouldn't eliminate the edge. Target Field's dimensions and Martin's role within the Twins' lineup appear to create a perfect storm for under results. While his major league sample remains limited, the consistency of this underperformance suggests structural factors rather than temporary struggles. The -1.4 differential per game compounds quickly over a season, making this one of the more reliable directional trends available.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Austin Martin's total bases props at home offer exceptional value with an 85.7% under rate and -1.4 average differential. The 10-game under streak reflects systematic overvaluation rather than temporary variance. Target this prop when lines remain in the 2.5-3.0 range, as Martin's contact-heavy approach and limited power make reaching these numbers consistently unlikely at Target Field.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 14 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Austin Martin's Total Bases prop record home games?
Austin Martin is 2-12-0 on total bases overs in home games, hitting just 14.3% of overs with an average of 1.36 total bases per game across 14 contests in 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Austin Martin Total Bases home games?
Bet the under on Austin Martin's total bases at home. The 85.7% under rate and -1.4 average differential create exceptional value, especially with lines typically set around 2.5-3.0 bases.
What's Austin Martin's average Total Bases home games?
Austin Martin averages 1.36 total bases in home games, sitting 1.35 bases below the typical 2.71 line. This massive differential has produced a 63.6% ROI for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Austin Martin total bases unders when he's playing at Target Field with lines of 2.5 or higher. His contact-heavy approach and limited power make these numbers consistently difficult to reach at home.