Anthony Volpe's total bases production has cratered over his last 10 games, hitting the over just once (10.0%) while averaging 1.1 total bases against a 3.3 line. With six consecutive unders and a staggering -2.2 differential, the under presents exceptional value despite potential regression concerns.
Expert Analysis
Anthony Volpe's total bases collapse represents one of the most dramatic prop betting opportunities in recent memory. The Yankees shortstop has managed just 11 total bases across 10 games, a production rate that defies even the most pessimistic projections. His 1.1 average sits 2.2 bases below the typical 3.3 line, suggesting either severe mechanical issues or books being extraordinarily slow to adjust. The six-game under streak indicates this isn't random variance but a sustained slump affecting his entire offensive approach. Volpe's struggles likely stem from pressing in high-leverage September games, as young players often experience late-season fatigue and mental pressure. The sample size, while meaningful, raises regression concerns as his season-long metrics suggest significantly higher capability. However, the magnitude of underperformance creates a cushion even if mild improvement occurs. Books appear anchored to season-long numbers rather than adjusting for current form, creating a pricing inefficiency. The risk lies in Volpe breaking out of his funk suddenly, but his recent plate discipline and swing decisions suggest deeper mechanical issues requiring time to resolve.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -2.2 differential and 10% over rate create compelling value despite regression risk. Target games where Volpe faces quality pitching or appears in the bottom third of the lineup, as these conditions have amplified his struggles. The primary risk is a sudden mechanical breakthrough, but his current form suggests continued underperformance in the near term.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Volpe's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Anthony Volpe has hit the over on his total bases prop just once in his last 10 games (10.0% rate), going 1-9-0 while averaging only 1.1 total bases per game during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Volpe Total Bases last 10 games?
Lean under on Anthony Volpe's total bases props. His 1.1 average sits 2.2 bases below typical lines, and the current six-game under streak suggests continued struggles rather than imminent breakout.
What's Anthony Volpe's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Anthony Volpe is averaging 1.1 total bases over his last 10 games, which sits 2.2 bases below the typical 3.3 line, representing one of the largest negative differentials in recent prop betting.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Anthony Volpe total bases unders when he faces quality starting pitching or hits lower in the Yankees lineup, as these conditions have coincided with his worst performances during this slump.