Anthony Rendon's home run prop at home represents one of the most reliable under bets in baseball, hitting just 5.6% overs across 18 games with a devastating -0.4 differential versus the standard 0.5 line. With 14 consecutive unders and an 80.3% ROI backing the under, this trend screams systematic fade.
Expert Analysis
Rendon's home run futility at Angel Stadium stems from a perfect storm of declining athleticism and unfavorable conditions. At 34, his exit velocity and hard contact rates have cratered from his Washington peak, while Angel Stadium's marine layer and expansive foul territory work against power hitters. The 0.06 average against a 0.5 line creates massive value, as books consistently overestimate his pop based on past reputation rather than current reality. His swing has become more contact-oriented to compensate for reduced bat speed, prioritizing putting the ball in play over driving it out. The 14-game under streak isn't fluky variance—it reflects a fundamental shift in his offensive profile. Regression concerns are minimal given his age curve and the ballpark's suppressive effects on right-handed power. The Angels' offensive struggles compound this, as fewer RBI opportunities mean less aggressive swinging in hitter's counts. Books appear slow to adjust the line downward, creating sustained value for under bettors who recognize Rendon's transformation from slugger to singles hitter.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Rendon's home run production has fundamentally shifted, creating a massive 0.4-run edge that books haven't properly adjusted for. Target this prop when the line sits at 0.5, especially in day games where Angel Stadium's marine layer is most pronounced. The primary risk is a random hot streak, but his declining power metrics suggest this trend has staying power through season's end.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Home Runs Prop Lines
Compare Anthony Rendon props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Rendon's Home Runs prop record home games?
Anthony Rendon's home run prop has gone under in 17 of 18 home games (94.4% under rate) with just one over, producing an 80.3% ROI for under bettors and devastating -89.4% returns on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Rendon Home Runs home games?
Bet the under aggressively. Rendon averages just 0.06 home runs per home game against a 0.5 line, creating a massive 0.4-run edge. This represents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball.
What's Anthony Rendon's average Home Runs home games?
Rendon averages 0.06 home runs per home game, creating a staggering 0.4-run differential below the typical 0.5 line. This gap reflects his transformation from power threat to contact hitter at age 34.
How reliable is this trend?
Target day games at Angel Stadium when the marine layer is strongest and suppress power most effectively. The under performs best when Rendon faces quality pitching that limits his already-reduced home run opportunities.