Andy Pages presents a compelling under opportunity with just 36.2% overs across 58 games, going 21-37-0 against his total bases line. His 1.36 average falls significantly short of the typical 2.21 line, creating a massive -0.8 differential that translates to profitable under betting at +21.8% ROI.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of a player whose total bases production consistently falls short of market expectations. Pages's 1.36 average against a 2.21 line represents a substantial 38% shortfall that suggests either inflated lines or fundamental limitations in his offensive profile. The -30.9% ROI on overs versus +21.8% on unders demonstrates market inefficiency, likely driven by casual bettors overvaluing the Dodgers' offensive environment. His longest under streak of 11 games compared to just 5 overs indicates sustained periods of underperformance rather than random variance. The consistency of this trend across 58 games provides statistical significance, while the lack of meaningful over streaks suggests limited ceiling potential. This pattern typically emerges from players with high strikeout rates, limited power, or inconsistent playing time - factors that create reliable under value when books fail to adjust lines accordingly. The current single-game under streak positions Pages for continued underperformance, especially given his historical tendency toward extended cold spells.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Pages's 36.2% over rate and -0.8 line differential create exceptional under value that the market hasn't corrected. The 21.8% under ROI across 58 games provides robust evidence of sustained edge. Target this prop in all game situations, as Pages lacks the power ceiling to consistently exceed inflated total bases lines. Main risk is lineup changes or injury affecting sample reliability.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andy Pages's Total Bases prop record all games?
Andy Pages has gone 21-37-0 on total bases props across 58 games, hitting the over just 36.2% of the time. His under record shows consistent failure to reach market expectations throughout the season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andy Pages Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Andy Pages's total bases props. His 36.2% over rate and +21.8% under ROI across 58 games create a high-confidence betting edge that the market hasn't properly adjusted for.
What's Andy Pages's average Total Bases all games?
Andy Pages averages 1.36 total bases per game compared to typical lines around 2.21, creating a significant -0.8 differential. This 38% shortfall indicates consistently inflated market expectations for his offensive production.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Andy Pages total bases unders in all game situations given his consistent 36.2% over rate. The edge appears strongest during his cold streaks, which historically extend up to 11 games consecutively.