Fade UNDER
3-26 O/U Record
10.3% Over Rate
-23.3u Units Won
-80.2% ROI
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Andy Pages presents one of the season's most reliable under trends in home run props, hitting just 10.3% of overs in away games with a brutal 3-26 record. The rookie center fielder averages 0.1 home runs on the road against typical 0.6 lines, creating consistent value on unders.

Expert Analysis

Pages's road power struggles reflect a classic rookie adjustment pattern that never materialized in 2024. His 0.1 home run average away from Dodger Stadium represents a massive 0.5 differential from typical betting lines, suggesting oddsmakers consistently overvalued his power potential in hostile environments. The 10-game under streak isn't a fluke—it's the culmination of fundamental issues with his swing mechanics and approach against quality road pitching. Road environments amplify rookie struggles through unfamiliar backgrounds, hostile crowds, and elevated stress levels that particularly impact timing-dependent skills like home run hitting. Pages's contact-first approach translates better to doubles and singles, but the long ball remains elusive away from home. The sample size of 29 games provides statistical significance, and the consistency of results (89.7% under rate) suggests this isn't variance but a genuine skill differential. Most concerning for over bettors is the complete absence of multi-homer games on the road, indicating limited ceiling even in favorable matchups. The trend shows no signs of regression, as Pages has failed to demonstrate the adjustments necessary to unlock road power.

Betting Verdict

UNDER with HIGH confidence. Pages's road home run props offer exceptional value with an 89.7% hit rate and +71.2% ROI on unders. The 0.5 line differential creates a mathematical edge that rookie development patterns support continuing. Target unders especially against quality pitching staffs or in pitcher-friendly ballparks where his contact approach faces additional obstacles.

3 OVERS (10.3%)
26 UNDERS
0% 50% breakeven 100%

Performance vs Line

Game Log (Last 15 Games)

Date Opp Line Actual +/- Result
2024-09-28 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-08-15 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-08-02 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-07-12 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-07-10 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-07-09 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-06-26 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-06-25 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-06-24 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-06-20 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-06-18 OPP 0.5 1.0 +0.5 OVER
2024-06-17 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-06-09 OPP 1.5 0.0 -1.5 UNDER
2024-06-08 OPP 1.5 0.0 -1.5 UNDER
2024-06-06 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER

Key Splits

Home vs Away

Home 50.0% Over
Away 10.3% Over

Favorite vs Underdog

Favorite 50.0% Over
Underdog 50.0% Over

Recent Trend

Last 5 0.0% Over
Last 10 0.0% Over

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is Andy Pages's Home Runs prop record away games?

Andy Pages has gone 3-26 on home run overs in away games this season, hitting just 10.3% of his overs with an average of 0.1 home runs per road game against typical 0.6 lines.

Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andy Pages Home Runs away games?

Bet the UNDER on Andy Pages home run props in away games. The 89.7% under rate and +71.2% ROI make this one of the season's most reliable trends with strong mathematical backing.

What's Andy Pages's average Home Runs away games?

Pages averages 0.1 home runs in away games compared to typical betting lines of 0.6, creating a massive 0.5 differential that consistently favors under bettors throughout the 2024 season.

How reliable is this trend?

Target Pages home run unders in any away game, especially against quality pitching staffs or in pitcher-friendly ballparks where his contact-oriented approach faces additional challenges beyond normal road difficulties.

Methodology: This analysis covers 29 games from 2024-04-23 to 2024-09-28. O/U results use closing prop lines. ROI assumes -110 juice. Pushes excluded from percentages.