Andy Pages presents one of the most lopsided home run prop trends in baseball, hitting the under at an 88.3% clip (53-7-0) with a devastating -77.7% over ROI. His 0.12 home runs per game sits 0.43 below typical lines, creating consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
Pages's home run futility stems from fundamental power limitations that books haven't fully adjusted for in their pricing. His 0.12 home runs per game represents genuine offensive ceiling rather than temporary slump, as evidenced by the remarkable 22-game under streak to close the season. The Dodgers rookie posted pedestrian exit velocity metrics and struggled to elevate the ball consistently, particularly problematic for home run production. Books appear anchored to positional expectations for center fielders in high-scoring Dodger Stadium, but Pages lacks the raw power profile of typical major league sluggers. His swing mechanics favor contact over lift, creating ground ball tendencies that severely limit over-the-fence potential. The consistency of this under performance across varying matchups and conditions suggests this isn't matchup-dependent but rather reflects Pages's current skill set. While young players can develop power, the sample size here indicates books are systematically overvaluing his home run probability. The -0.43 differential between his actual production and typical lines represents significant market inefficiency that sharp bettors have exploited ruthlessly.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Pages's 88.3% under rate and 22-game closing streak reflect genuine power limitations rather than variance. The 0.43 differential between his production and lines creates systematic value on unders across all matchups. Primary risk involves potential lineup changes or development, but his established contact-oriented profile makes dramatic power surges unlikely in the near term.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andy Pages's Home Runs prop record all games?
Andy Pages went 7-53-0 over/under on home run props in all games during 2024, hitting the under 88.3% of the time with an average of just 0.12 home runs per game across 60 total games.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andy Pages Home Runs all games?
Bet the UNDER on Andy Pages home run props with high confidence. His 88.3% under rate, 22-game closing streak, and -0.43 differential from typical lines create systematic value on unders across all situations.
What's Andy Pages's average Home Runs all games?
Andy Pages averaged 0.12 home runs per game in 2024, sitting 0.43 below the typical 0.55 line. This massive differential explains his 88.3% under rate and represents significant market inefficiency favoring under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Andy Pages home run unders consistently across all matchups and conditions. His power limitations appear matchup-independent, with the 22-game under streak demonstrating value regardless of opposing pitcher or ballpark factors.