Andrew Vaughn's Total Bases props away from home present a compelling under opportunity, with just 13 overs in 45 games (28.9% rate). His 1.22 average sits 0.6 bases below the typical 1.83 line, generating +35.8% ROI on unders. This is a strong lean under play.
Expert Analysis
Andrew Vaughn's road struggles with Total Bases props stem from a fundamental shift in his offensive profile away from Guaranteed Rate Field. The 1.22 average versus a 1.83 line represents a massive 33% gap that sportsbooks have been slow to adjust for. This isn't just bad luck - it's a systematic pattern spanning nearly two full seasons. The current 11-game under streak demonstrates the persistence of this trend, suggesting environmental factors beyond normal variance. Road ballparks may be exposing weaknesses in Vaughn's swing mechanics or approach, particularly against unfamiliar pitching staffs who can exploit his tendencies. The -44.9% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that consistently overvalues his road production. While regression toward league norms is always possible, the sample size of 45 games provides substantial confidence in the underlying pattern. The fact that his longest over streak reached just three games while unders have hit eleven straight indicates this isn't random distribution. Vaughn's road Total Bases props represent a clear market inefficiency where books haven't adequately adjusted for his venue-specific struggles.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 71.1% under rate combined with a 0.6-base deficit to the average line creates exceptional value on road games. Target this prop when Vaughn faces quality pitching staffs in pitcher-friendly ballparks for maximum edge. The primary risk is natural regression, but the 45-game sample and current 11-game streak suggest this pattern has staying power through season's end.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Vaughn's Total Bases prop record away games?
Andrew Vaughn has gone under his Total Bases prop in 32 of 45 away games (71.1% under rate) with a record of 13-32-0. His road performance shows consistent struggles with just 28.9% overs since May 2023.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Vaughn Total Bases away games?
Bet under on Andrew Vaughn's Total Bases props in away games. The 71.1% under rate and +35.8% ROI on unders create exceptional value, especially with his current 11-game under streak demonstrating pattern persistence.
What's Andrew Vaughn's average Total Bases away games?
Andrew Vaughn averages 1.22 Total Bases in away games compared to the typical 1.83 line, creating a significant 0.6-base deficit. This 33% gap represents substantial value for under bettors in road contests.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Andrew Vaughn's Total Bases unders in away games against quality pitching staffs and pitcher-friendly ballparks. The 11-game current streak and 45-game sample provide confidence this edge continues through season's end.