Andrew Vaughn's home run production at Guaranteed Rate Field has been historically anemic, hitting just 10.4% of overs across 48 games with a catastrophic -0.4 differential versus the typical 0.52 line. This represents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball, warranting aggressive consideration on the under side.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Vaughn's power struggles at home. Averaging just 0.1 home runs per game against lines typically set around 0.52, Vaughn has created a massive 0.4 differential that screams systematic mispricing. The 71% ROI on unders reflects not just poor performance, but a consistent failure to meet market expectations. Guaranteed Rate Field's dimensions favor left-handed power, yet Vaughn as a right-handed hitter faces the park's deepest dimensions down the right field line. His current streak of five consecutive unders, following a season-long pattern of power suppression at home, suggests this isn't random variance but a fundamental mismatch between his swing profile and home park characteristics. The 13-game under streak within this sample demonstrates the persistence of this trend. While regression is always possible in baseball, Vaughn's approach and the park's layout create structural headwinds for home run production. The White Sox's offensive struggles have also meant fewer favorable counts and RBI opportunities, further limiting his power ceiling. This trend has shown remarkable consistency across different months and game situations, indicating it's rooted in measurable factors rather than small sample noise.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The -0.4 differential combined with 71% ROI on unders creates a compelling systematic edge that transcends typical variance. Vaughn's right-handed swing profile clashes with Guaranteed Rate Field's dimensions, creating persistent power suppression at home. The ideal betting condition is any line at 0.5 or higher, though even 0.5 offers value given his 0.1 average. The primary risk is a hot streak breaking the pattern, but the underlying park factors suggest sustainability.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Vaughn's Home Runs prop record home games?
Andrew Vaughn's home run prop record in home games is a dismal 5-43-0 over/under, hitting just 10.4% of overs. He's averaging 0.1 home runs per game at Guaranteed Rate Field, well below typical line settings of 0.52.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Vaughn Home Runs home games?
Bet the UNDER on Andrew Vaughn's home run props in home games with high confidence. The -0.4 differential and 71% ROI on unders represent one of baseball's most reliable trends, backed by park factors and swing profile mismatches.
What's Andrew Vaughn's average Home Runs home games?
Andrew Vaughn averages 0.1 home runs per game in home contests, creating a massive 0.4 differential below the typical 0.52 line. This represents one of the largest negative differentials in baseball prop betting for power hitters.
How reliable is this trend?
The best time to bet Andrew Vaughn's home run unders is consistently at Guaranteed Rate Field, particularly when lines are set at 0.5 or higher. The trend shows no seasonal variation, making it reliable throughout the baseball calendar.