Andrew Vaughn's home run props present one of the season's most reliable under plays, hitting over just 8 times in 94 games for a brutal 8.5% success rate. His 0.09 home runs per game average sits 0.4 below typical lines, generating +74.7% ROI on unders. This is a strong lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Andrew Vaughn's home run futility represents a fundamental power shortage that books haven't fully adjusted for. Averaging just 0.09 homers per game against lines typically set around 0.5, Vaughn faces inflated expectations based on his first base position rather than actual production. The 26-game under streak within this sample reveals a player whose swing mechanics and approach simply don't generate consistent power. His 8.5% over rate suggests books are pricing in occasional pop that rarely materializes. The -83.8% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has been consistently fading these props, while recreational bettors likely chase the position-based power narrative. Vaughn's profile screams contact hitter miscast as a slugger, with his gap power not translating to home run frequency. The consistency of this trend across 94 games eliminates small sample concerns, while the extreme differential between his actual production and betting lines creates sustainable value. Unless Vaughn fundamentally alters his swing plane or approach, this power deficit should persist, making unders the clear value play regardless of matchup specifics.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Vaughn's 0.09 home runs per game against typical 0.5 lines creates clear mathematical value, supported by an 8.5% over rate across 94 games. The ideal conditions are simply any standard home run prop, as his power deficiency transcends matchup variables. The main risk involves potential line adjustments if books finally recognize his limited power, though current pricing suggests they haven't made that correction yet.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Vaughn's Home Runs prop record all games?
Andrew Vaughn's home run prop record shows 8 overs and 86 unders across 94 games, translating to just an 8.5% over rate. This represents one of the season's most lopsided under trends with exceptional consistency.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Vaughn Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Andrew Vaughn's home run props. His 0.09 average sits well below typical 0.5 lines, creating mathematical value supported by 86 unders in 94 games and +74.7% ROI on the under side.
What's Andrew Vaughn's average Home Runs all games?
Andrew Vaughn averages 0.09 home runs per game, sitting 0.4 below the typical 0.5 betting line. This massive differential explains the 8.5% over rate and creates consistent value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Andrew Vaughn home run unders in any standard market situation. His power deficiency transcends matchup variables, making the under valuable regardless of pitcher, park, or weather conditions given current line pricing.